云南省电力系统规划方案低碳效益计算与分析  

Calculation and Analysis of the Low-Carbon Benefit of Power System Planning Scheme in Yunnan Province

作　　者：郑外生[1] 朱文涛[1] 张立[1] 周天睿[2] 

机构地区：[1]云南电网公司,昆明650011 [2]清华大学电机系电力系统国家重点实验室,北京100084

出　　处：《南方电网技术》2010年第6期7-12,共6页Southern Power System Technology

摘　　要：为了加速云南电网低碳化发展进程,建立了碳排放计算模型。基于云南省未来10年的电源规划方案,对云南省内电力生产碳排放总量和排放强度的发展趋势进行计算和评估。结果表明:在3种(低、中、高)负荷增长模式下,云南省电力生产带来的碳排放均呈现出明显相似的阶段特性。以中方案为例,碳排放轨迹可分为三个阶段:平稳阶段(2010—2013年),即使期间云南省电力负荷的年平均增长率达到12.93%,云南省电力生产碳排放量平均增长率也只有5.5%;上升阶段(2014—2015年),该两年碳排放的增长量占"十二五"碳排放总量的82%;下降阶段(2016—2020年),碳排放开始缓慢下降并趋于平稳。In order to promote low-carbon development process of Yunnan Power Grid,establishing a model for carbon emission calculation and based on the power planning scheme of Yunnan Province for the next decade,this paper accomplishes the calculation and trend analysis of carbon emission quantity and intensity of the province.According to the result,there is obviously a similarity of the carbon emission trajectories under different load growth rates（low,normal,high rates）.As for the normal load growth rate scenario,the emission trajectory can be divided into three stages：stationary（2010-2013） stage in which the average rate of carbon emission is only 5.5% even that of power load of Yunnan Province up to 12.93% of year average increasement;upward stage（2014-2015） in which the increasement of carbon emission is up to 82% of the ＂Twelfth-Five Year＂ planning quantity;and downward stage（2016-2020） in which the carbon emission begins to decrease slowly and then smoothly.

关 键 词：低碳经济 低碳电力 电力系统规划 电源结构 碳排放 

分 类 号：TM715[电气工程—电力系统及自动化] F407.61[经济管理—产业经济]