基于稳定度的短期负荷预测结果评价新方法  

A New Method for Short-Term Forecast Evaluation Based on Stability Degree

作　　者：陈桂远[1] 罗欣 高文建[1] 覃松涛[1] 朱桂兰[1] 

机构地区：[1]广西电力调度通信中心,南宁530023 [2]北京清软创新科技有限公司,北京100085

出　　处：《南方电网技术》2010年第6期94-97,共4页Southern Power System Technology

摘　　要：短期负荷预测是合理安排电网生产调度、保证电网安全经济运行所必须的,因此,短期负荷预测精度是一项重要的工作考核指标,而如何评价短期预测也就成为重要的课题。分析了常规负荷预测结果评价方法在省地一体化管理应用中的弊端,并基于频域分析,建立了评价负荷规律性强弱的稳定度指标,提出了以稳定度为依据建立新型负荷预测结果评价标准的新思路。以广西桂林、河池地区电网为例,验证了稳定度分析法的可行性。It is necessary to make short-term load forecast for doing reasonable power dispatch as well as ensuring the safety and economic operation of power systems,and thus the forecast accuracy is taken as an important examination index,and how to evaluate the forecast becomes a critical issue.Analyzing the disadvantages of the conventional forecast evaluation methods and pointing out that those methods are not suitable for the systems of province and region integration,this paper sets up an index of stability degree based on frequency domain analysis.The stability degree can indicate the regularity of load strength,and is taken as a new criterion for the short-term forecast evaluation.The proposed method is valuated in its application to the region system of Guilin and Hechi in Guangxi Power Grid.

关 键 词：预测结果评价 频域分析 稳定度 

分 类 号：TM714[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]