新疆棉花播种期气候服务指标分析及应用  

Analysis and Application about the Climate Service Index of Cotton's Seedtime in Xinjiang

作　　者：毛炜峄[1] 曹占洲[1] 邹陈[2] 李迎春[1] 李新建[2] 

机构地区：[1]新疆气候中心,新疆乌鲁木齐830002 [2]中国气象局乌鲁木齐沙漠气象研究所,新疆乌鲁木齐830002

出　　处：《沙漠与绿洲气象》2010年第6期1-5,共5页Desert and Oasis Meteorology

基　　金：科技部国家科技支撑计划项目(2006BAD04B02);中国气象局新技术推广项目(CMATG2006M20)共同资助

摘　　要：针对新疆棉花播种期预测服务需求,提出了日平均气温5日滑动平均"稳定≥10℃初日"和棉花"播种—出苗期间热量指数"两个兼具生物学与气候学意义的气候服务指标。在实际业务应用中,借鉴短期气候预测方法,建立"滑动相关—逐步回归—集合分析"客观预测模型,得到这两项指标的预测值并参加业务会商,为综合分析并确定棉花开播期的早晚和提出适当的服务对策建议提供了有价值的信息,效果较好。该思路和具体方法可以在更多的气象为农业服务业务领域中尝试。This paper,due to the demand of forecast about cotton＇s seeding time in Xinjiang,brought forward two climate service indexes with the biological and climatic significance.One is the heat index during the period from cotton seed-time to emergence-time,the other is the first day of temperature ≥10 ℃ by smoothing the 5-day mean temperature.In service practice,the forecasting model was constructed by using the method of ＂smoothing correlation—stepwise regression—integrated analysis＂,referring to the short-term climate prediction methods,to predict these two indexes and provide valuable information for predicting the seedtime of cotton.This process can be used for many operational purposes such as meteorological service for agriculture.

关 键 词：棉花播种期 气候服务指标 稳定≥10℃初日 热量指数 新疆棉区 

分 类 号：S162.1[农业科学—农业气象学]