月动力延伸预报产品在阿勒泰地区预报中的应用检验  

Application Test of Monthly Dynamic Extended Range Forecast Product in Flood Season Precipitation Forecast in Aletai Region

作　　者：李海花[1] 张林梅[1] 梁效忠[1] 李楠 

机构地区：[1]阿勒泰地区气象台,新疆阿勒泰836500 [2]聊城市气象局,山东聊城252060

出　　处：《沙漠与绿洲气象》2010年第6期16-19,共4页Desert and Oasis Meteorology

摘　　要：利用2005年7月—2009年12月阿勒泰地区7个气象观测站逐月和旬的降水和温度实况资料、国家气候中心制作的月动力延伸预测模式的图形资料,采用预报评分法(P)和距平符号异同评分法对内插预测结果进行检验。结果表明:月动力延伸预报产品对各月温度距平同号率要明显高于降水距平百分率预报与实况同号率,对各月温度距平的预报评分比较稳定,而对各月降水距平百分率的预报评分差异较大。Based on monthly rainfall data during Jul.2005-Dec.2009 from 7 weather stations in Aletai region and the graphic data produced by monthly dynamic extended range forecast model of National Climate Centre,this paper tested the results of interpolation prediction by methods of forecast score（P） and anomaly sign score.The results showed that the method of the anomaly sign score with preferable evaluation and had some reference value in short-term climate prediction of temperature and precipitation in the Aletai region.

关 键 词：月动力延伸预报产品 短期气候预测 检验 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]