数值预报产品在和田市2009年汛期降水预报中的准确性检验  

2009 Flood Season Precipitation Forecast Accuracy Test in Hotan City,Using NWP Products

作　　者：买买提.阿布都拉 

机构地区：[1]和田地区气象台,新疆和田848000

出　　处：《沙漠与绿洲气象》2010年第6期20-23,共4页Desert and Oasis Meteorology

基　　金：新疆维吾尔自治区气象局青年气象科研课题(200935)资助

摘　　要：利用目前在天气预报业务中使用的T213、MM5、GERMANY和JAPAN等4种数值降水预报产品(以下简称产品)资料,对2009年汛期(6—8月)和田市24～72 h不同量级降水和预报技巧的预报效果进行了检验和对比分析。结果表明:除JAPAN产品对24h一般降水和小量降水、GERMANY产品对24～48 h中量降水的预报效果较好,准确率在50%以上外,其它产品对24～72 h各量级的预报效果较差,准确率均在33%以下。当3种及以上预报产品均预报有降水时,其出现降水的准确率为100%;而两种预报产品均预报有降水时,出现降水的准确率为40%;仅一种预报产品预报有降水时,其出现降水的准确率为0%。The four kinds of numerical weather model products for quantitative precipitation normally applied in current forecast practice,T213,MM5,GERMANY and JAPAN,were used to examined and analyzed their forecast capability in quantitative precipitation forecasting for 3 days（24 to 72 hours） taking case of flood season（June-August） in Hotan city in 2009.The results suggest that the quantitative precipitation products of JAPAN for 24 hours comes with more accuracy in general and little-quantity precipitation forecast,and GERMANY product for 24~48 h in Medium-quantity precipitation forecast,both with accuracy rate of more than 50%,while the four kinds of numerical weather model porducts comes with poor accuracy rate of less than 33% in all quantitative precipitation for 24~72 h.When precipitation reports comes from three kinds of forecast products coincidently,the accuracy are the highest with the rate of 100%,and from two kinds of forecast products at the same time,the accuracy rate is 40%,but the accuracy rate is 0% as precipitation only reported from one kind of model product.

关 键 词：数值预报产品 降水 检验 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]