关于上海当前物价形势的基本判断:特点、因素和趋势分析  

Essential Judgment on the Current CPI Situation:Characteristics,Factors and Trend

作　　者：王志雄[1] 甄明霞[1] 祁也萍 严军[1] 

机构地区：[1]上海市统计局,200003

出　　处：《上海经济研究》2011年第2期105-112,136,共9页Shanghai Journal of Economics

摘　　要：当前上海和全国物价上涨是自2003年以来的第三轮上涨周期。本文从本轮价格上涨的基本面开始,全面系统分析影响当前物价形势的因素与环境,并从宏观、微观和周期性因素的角度,对本轮物价后续走势做出预期判断。总体看,目前CPI涨幅仍处于可控区间,食品类价格上涨仍是结构主因,但面临的持续上涨压力值得高度重视。2011年物价上涨的压力仍较大,影响物价产生波动的各种因素仍将在较长时期内存在,对外经济制度因素形成的被动货币超发、成本推动型的价格上涨、国内外投机炒作因素将继续存在。从周期性因素看,当前正处于物价上涨上升阶段的中期。总体判断,整个物价形势不完全是单边上涨趋势,也可能呈现为波动态势,从中期趋势看,物价波动将成为常态。The current CPI rising cycle is the third round since 2003 in Shanghai and China. Starting From the basic Characteristics of this round of price increases, the Paper analysis the Influencing Factors and environment comprehensively and systematically about the current CPI rising. From the macro, micro and Cyclical factors point of view, the follow - up of the current round of price trend is expected to make judgments. Overall, the current CPI rising is still in control interval, and food prices are still the main reason of structure, but continued to face upward pressure should be highly valued. Upward pressure on prices in 2011 is still large, the price fluctuations of various factors that will continue to exist in the longer term, for example , the formation of a passive currency issued based on foreign economic , the cost- push price increases, and domestic and international speculation factors . From cyclical factors, the current rising in inflation is in the middle stages. General Judgment, the price situation is not entirely unilateral upward trend, and it may appear as fluctuations in trend. From the mid - term trends, price fluctuations will be the norm.

关 键 词：物价形势 CPI 趋势判断 影响因素 

分 类 号：F252.4[经济管理—国民经济]