能源消费、节能潜力与中国对外贸易  

Energy Consumption,Energy Saving Potential and China's Foreign Trade

作　　者：尹显萍[1] 王生[2] 

机构地区：[1]武汉大学经济与管理学院,湖北武汉430072 [2]山东青岛海信集团信息技术中心,山东青岛266071

出　　处：《经济管理》2011年第2期14-22,共9页Business and Management Journal ( BMJ )

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目"商品进出口结构优化与节能降耗潜力分析"(09BJY036);教育部人文社会科学研究基金项目"中国进出口商品中的内涵能源分析及政策含义"(09YJA790151);湖北省社会科学基金项目"提升湖北省开放型经济水平研究"(2009/004)

摘　　要：节能减排的长期国策以及发展中的贸易大国的基本特征，都需要我们高度重视我国对外贸易在能耗和环境方面的独特影响力。本文基于内涵能源的角度，运用投入产出法，从贸易规模与贸易结构两方面分析了2002～2008年对外贸易对我国能源消费的影响，并利用优化模型对BAU情景下2020年单位GDP所对应的能源消费量等相关指标进行了了测算。分析结果显示，内涵能源出口量随着贸易出口规模的扩大而增加，贸易结构呈现不利于节能降耗的发展趋势。2020年能耗下降预测值与我国新近确立的减排目标还有较大差距，而我国对外贸易的节能潜力非常可观。因此，提升对外贸易对节能降耗的贡献度应该是我们深化重大问题研究的一个重要课题。The long-term national policy on energy conservation and emission reduction and the basic characteristics of a big developing trading country require us to attach great importance to the unique influence of China＇s foreign trade on energy consumption and the environment. Based on the embodied energy, this article applies the input-output method and through the two aspects of trade volume and trade structure, it calculates the impact of China＇s foreign trade on its energy consumption during 2002 to 2008. It also uses the optimization model to calculate some related indicators such as the corresponding energy consumption amount of per unit of GDP in the BAU situation in 2020. The calculation and analysis results show that the amount of energy which has been delivered to the exporting products through the input-output relation is quite huge, and there is still a large gap between the predicted amount of energy saving and emission reduction in the BAU situation and the amount of China＇s newly established reduction target. Nevertheless, China＇s energy saving potential in foreign trade is still very considerable. Therefore, promoting the contribution of energy conservation in foreign trade is an important issue when we are going to deepen the major problems in our research.

关 键 词：能源消费 节能潜力 对外贸易 

分 类 号：F206[经济管理—国民经济]