中国公共支出增长效应测度及分解分析  

To Measure and Decompose the Effects of Public Expenditure on Economic Growth in China

作　　者：毛中根[1] 洪涛[2] 

机构地区：[1]西南财经大学工商管理学院 [2]哈尔滨工业大学经济与管理学院

出　　处：《数量经济技术经济研究》2011年第2期64-77,123,共15页Journal of Quantitative & Technological Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金(编号:08CJL007;10BJY080);教育部博士点基金(编号:200802131040);西南财经大学"211工程"三期建设项目的阶段性成果

摘　　要：本文首先利用中国各省(市、区)1952～2007年的时间序列数据测算了政府公共支出的短期和长期增长效应。在此基础上,利用空间计量经济学方法分析了中国公共支出增长效应的影响因素。研究表明,无论在短期还是长期,改革开放后政府公共支出的增长效应均有显著提高,但区域间存在较大差异。人力资本投资对长期增长效应起显著促进作用;就业水平起负作用;行政支出的增长效应不明显;对外开放可提高长期增长效应;市场化对长期增长效应有显著促进作用;地方政府竞争起负作用。Firstly, we measure long - term and short- term effects of public expenditure on economic growth in China based on the time series data of 28 provinces from 1952 to 2007. Secondly, we analyze the impact of several important factors on these effects. We find that these effects have increased after the reformation of Chi- na from 1978, but there still is a notable gap with these effects among different provinces. Result of analysis also shows that human capital investment, opening up and marketization has positive impact on these effects, but government administration expenditure, employment and local government competition has negative impact.

关 键 词：公共支出 经济增长 因素分解 

分 类 号：C812[社会学—统计学]