我国未来人口发展与碳排放变动的模拟分析  

Simulated Analysis of Population Development and Carbon Emission in Future China

作　　者：朱勤[1] 彭希哲[1] 傅雪[1] 

机构地区：[1]复旦大学公共管理与公共政策研究创新基地,上海200433

出　　处：《人口与发展》2011年第1期2-15,共14页Population and Development

基　　金：国家科技支撑计划重大项目专题(2007BAC03A11-05);国家社会科学基金项目(10CJL033)

摘　　要：构建人口-消费-碳排放系统动力学模型,对本世纪上半叶我国人口发展、经济增长、居民消费及碳排放进行动态仿真,定量考察未来我国人口发展与居民消费对碳排放的影响。在基准情景下,我国人口总数将于2032年达到峰值14.6亿人;一次能源消费总量将于2044年左右达到峰值63.6亿吨标准煤,碳排放总量将于2038年左右达到峰值约31.3亿吨碳;2050年我国人均碳排放量约为2.2吨碳,低于日本、欧洲1980年代以来的最低水平;居民消费碳排放的人均需求约为1.3吨碳,相当于美国居民1990年代后期排放水平的五分之一。从满足人口发展与居民基本生活需求的角度争取合理的碳排放空间,是我国争取国际气候谈判话语权的有力支撑点。A system dynamics model of population - consumption - carbon - emission is built for simulating population development and carbon emission from residential consumption in fu- ture China. The results of simulation show that in the base scenario the population will reach its peak number of 1.46 billions in 2032 ; the total primary energy consumption in China will reach its peak number of 6.36 billion tce in 2044, and the total carbon emission will reach its peak number of 3.13 billions tC in 2038 ;carbon emission per capita will be about 2.2 tC in 2050, which will be lower than the lowest level in Japan and Europe since 1980;Carbon emission from residential consumption in China will reach 1.3 tC per capita, come up to one fifths of American level in the late of 1990s. Based on the above researches,this paper concludes that it is in confortuity with the justice principles in different countries, different people and different times to discharge reasonable greenhouse gases for meeting the basic survival and development requirements of Chinese people.

关 键 词：人口 居民消费 碳排放 系统动力学 

分 类 号：F061.3[经济管理—政治经济学]