短期电力供需预警系统及应用  

Short-term Power Supply and Demand Early-Warning System and Its Applications

作　　者：温权[1] 徐敏杰[1] 胡兆光[1] 

机构地区：[1]国网能源研究院,北京100052

出　　处：《能源技术经济》2011年第1期25-30,共6页Electric Power Technologic Economics

摘　　要：将研究宏观经济运行的预测预警理论引入到电力供需形势分析，针对电力供需分析的特点，设计了电力供需预警系统的指标体系，并以湖北电网为例，说明了预测预警理论对电力供需形势分析的有效性，在一定程度上反映了湖北电网电力供需形势的发展变化。算例结果表明：先行合成指数超前一致合成指数1～2个月，相关部门可以据此提前采取应对措施，缓和电力供需紧张形势。The prediction and early-warning theory used for macroeconomic study is introduced to the power supply and demand analysis, and an index system for power supply ＆ demand early-warning system is designed according to the power supply ＆ demand characteristics. A case study of the Hubei power grid has demonstrated the efficiency of the prediction and early-warning theory for power supply and demand analysis and truly reflected, to some extent, the variation of power supply and demand situation of Hubei power grid, The study result shows that when the leading compound index overtakes the synchronous compound index by I-2 months, relevant departments can take ahead counter measures to mitigate the strain power supply and demand situation

关 键 词：电力供需 预测预警 先行指标 一致指标 合成指数 

分 类 号：F426.21[经济管理—产业经济]