区域洪涝灾害风险估算模型及其应用  

Risk estimation model for regional flood disasters and its application

作　　者：赵君[1] 张晓民[2] 陈雅倩[1] 李静[1] 

机构地区：[1]河海大学水文水资源学院,江苏南京210098 [2]中国电力工程顾问集团华北电力设计院工程有限公司,北京100120

出　　处：《河海大学学报（自然科学版）》2011年第1期9-13,共5页Journal of Hohai University(Natural Sciences)

摘　　要：为了减轻洪涝灾害造成的损失,针对系统存在的风险指标,研制区域洪涝灾害风险估算模型.应用马尔科夫链进行某种趋势外推型的风险预测,并估算洪涝灾害无实测值的状态;采用贝叶斯统计理论和方法,通过先验分布结合样本信息来推求后验分布,以最大概率原则判别风险估算的趋势,按照估算结果及当地的实际情况,适度调整针对洪涝灾害的策略,尽可能控制并减轻其造成的影响.应用实例验证了该模型的可行性.In order to reduce flood disaster loss,a risk estimation model for regional flood disasters was established according to the risk indexes in system. The Markov chain was employed to extrapolate some trend of risk prediction and to estimate the non-measured value state of flood disasters.The Bayes statistical theory and method was adopted to inquire the posterior distribution through the prior distribution and sample information and to distinguish the trend of risk estimation based on the maximum probability principle.The strategies for flood disasters were appropriately adjusted according to the estimated results and the local actual situations so as to control and reduce the caused impact as much as possible.The feasibility of the proposed model was validated by case study.

关 键 词：区域洪涝灾害 风险估算模型 马尔科夫链 贝叶斯统计 

分 类 号：P333.2[天文地球—水文科学]