河西走廊中部近53年降水变化及未来趋势预测  

Change and Trend Prediction of Precipitation in the Central Hexi Corridor in Gansu Province in Recent 53 Years

作　　者：刘洪兰 白虎志[2] 张俊国 

机构地区：[1]甘肃省张掖市气象局,甘肃张掖734000 [2]中国气象局兰州干旱气象研究所,甘肃省干旱气候变化与减灾重点实验室,中国气象局干旱气候变化与减灾重点开放实验室,甘肃兰州730020 [3]张掖中学,甘肃张掖734000

出　　处：《干旱区研究》2011年第1期146-150,共5页Arid Zone Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(40875046);中国气象局气候变化专项“西北极端干旱事件个例库及干旱监测指标数据集”(CCSF-09-14)资助

摘　　要：利用位于河西走廊中部的6个气象站1957-2009年的降水资料,分析近53年降水量年际年代际变化、季节变化、空间变化、各月变化。在分析降水量历史演变的基础上,利用均生函数方法建立了河西走廊中部降水量的预测模型。结果表明:近53年该地区降水量以4.75mm/10a的速度在递增,20世纪80-90年代前期降水量出现下降,90年代后期又开始缓慢增加,意味着该地区气候由暖干向暖湿转变。未来15年降水量呈缓慢上升趋势。This paper analyzes mainly the decadal,annual,seasonal,monthly and spatial changes of precipitation in the central Hexi Corridor based on the recent 53-year precipitation data observed by 6 weather stations in the middle reaches of the Heihe River. The mean generating function was used to develop the prediction model of precipitation after analyzing the historical evolution of precipitation in the central Hexi Corridor. The results show that the annual precipitation was increased by 4.75 mm/10 a in recent 53 years,it was decreased during the period from the end-1980s to the early-1990s,but increased slowly from the late-1990s,which reveals that the climate in the central Hexi Corridor changed from the warming-drying trend to the warming-wetting trend. It was predicted that the annual precipitation will be in a slow increase trend in next 15 years.

关 键 词：降水量 预测模型 空间变化 气温 河西走廊 

分 类 号：P468.024[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]