演化电力市场的古诺调节分析  

Cournot Adjustment Analysis of Evolutionary Electricity Markets

作　　者：游义刚[1] 周晓阳[2] 

机构地区：[1]华中科技大学水电与数字化工程学院,武汉430074 [2]华中科技大学数学与统计学院,武汉430074

出　　处：《电力系统及其自动化学报》2011年第1期127-131,共5页Proceedings of the CSU-EPSA

摘　　要：根据复杂适应系统的自动机网络建模方法,对电力市场稳定性问题进行整体性研究。建立了实验电力市场自动机网络模型一般框架:以发电商和ISO作为底层单元、以市场竞价规则作为演化机制。对优化定价模型进行博弈分析,并设计了渐进式古诺调节模式。针对典型案例,观察到渐进式古诺调节过程的特征,归纳推理出市场力在一系列负荷临界值可能具有爆发性释放的特点,这导致市场价格在这些临界点呈跳跃状增加。通过案例实验追踪演化历程,揭示导致电力市场失稳的可能成因。This paper investigates the stability of electricity markets based on the automata network modeling method of the complex adaptation system.Firstly,the general framework of the automata network model for the experimental electricity markets is built,the generation companies and ISO comprise the bottom units,and the most basic evolutionary mechanisms are generation companies＇ bidding strategies and ISO＇s pricing methods.Then the game analyzing of the optimal pricing model is studied,the modified optimal pricing model is proposed and the gradual Cournot adjustment mode is designed.Furthermore,a typical case is selected to observe the Cournot adjustment process,and some characteristics are reasoned that there may be a series of critical loads which stimulate the generation companies release much more market power so that the Cournot adjustment prices leap up at the critical load points.The possible reason of lost stability for the electricity markets is revealed by tracing the evolutionary process of the typical cases.

关 键 词：电力市场 自动机网络建模 演化博弈 古诺调节 市场力 

分 类 号：TM7[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]