基于内生经济增长理论的城市化进程中资源环境“尾效”分析  

Analysis on Resources Consumption Drag of Urbanization Based on Endogenous Growth Model

作　　者：刘耀彬[1,2] 杨新梅[2] 

机构地区：[1]复旦大学公共管理与公共政策研究国家哲学社会科学创新基地,上海200433 [2]南昌大学中国中部经济发展研究中心,江西南昌330047

出　　处：《中国人口·资源与环境》2011年第2期24-30,共7页China Population,Resources and Environment

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(No.07CJL031);国家自然科学基金项目(No.40961009);教育部科技重点项目(No.210117);江西省人文社科学项目(No.JJ0930)

摘　　要：在经济和城市快速发展过程中,资源环境对经济增长和城市化进程的约束越来越凸显。本文正是基于这种背景,研究了有限资源环境对城市化进程的阻碍大小,即城市化进程中资源环境"尾效"。首先通过内生增长理论构建资源环境对经济增长的"尾效"模型,再利用经济增长与城市化水平之间的半对数关系推导出城市化进程中资源环境"尾效"模型,然后以江西省为例对其城市化进程中的资源环境"尾效"进行实证分析。计量发现土地、能源、水资源和环境污染对江西省城市化进程的"尾效"大小分别为0.017 678 315,0.114 909 279,0.005 050 95和0.0214 665 3。可见,能源对城市化进程的阻尼作用是最为显著的,其次分别是环境污染、土地和水资源。显然,只有大力提高能源等资源的利用率,将生产方式转移到依靠技术进步上来,并且着力提高人们的节约和保护资源环境意识,江西省城市化才能走上可持续发展的道路。Urbanization must be supported by resources,but urbanization will be limited without enough resources,which is so called resources consumption drag of urbanization.In the background of more obvious limitation of resources and environment to economic growth and urbanization process,the paper first constructs the resources consumption drag model based on the endogenous growth theory to analyze resources consumption drag of economic growth due to insufficient resources and increasing pollution;second,the paper deduces the resources consumption drag model of urbanization by using the semi-log relationship between economic growth and urbanization;thirdly,taking Jiangxi Province for example,we make an empirical analysis on the resources consumption drag and calculate the growth drag value of energy,land,water,and pollution to urbanization,which are 0.1149,0.01768,0.00505,and 0.02147,respectively finally,we get a conclusion： in order to guarantee sustainable urbanization in Jiangxi,it is necessary to tranform the production way to depending on technology advancement,and to raise the consciousness to save and protect resources and environment.

关 键 词：经济增长 城市化 资源环境 尾效 

分 类 号：F061.2[经济管理—政治经济学] F120.3