SaTScan在湖沼型血吸虫病聚集区域探测中的应用  

Application of SaTScan in detection of schistosomiasis clusters in marshland and lake areas

作　　者：赵飞[1] 朱蓉[2] 张利娟[2] 张志杰[1] 李源培[1] 何明祯[1] 周艺彪[1] 郭家钢[2] 赵根明[1] 姜庆五[1] 

机构地区：[1]复旦大学公共卫生学院流行病学教研室公共卫生安全教育部重点实验室,上海200032 [2]中国疾病预防控制中心寄生虫病预防控制所

出　　处：《中国血吸虫病防治杂志》2011年第1期28-31,共4页Chinese Journal of Schistosomiasis Control

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重大项目(30590374);国家科技重大专项(2008ZX10004-011);上海市重点学科建设项目(B118);复旦大学重点学科创新人才培养计划基金资助项目

摘　　要：目的探测2008年湖区5省血吸虫病传播的聚集区域,为血吸虫病防治工作提供依据,同时也为相关疾病聚集区域探测方法提供参考。方法基于县级GIS构建空间数据库,同时收集现有病人数、流行县人口数等资料,运用SaTScan软件探测血吸虫病聚集区域。结果共探测出5个聚集区域,包括39个县(区)。其中有3个聚集区域的相对危险度均达到了3以上,对数似然比均在1 000以上(P<0.05)。位于长江与湖北、湖南交界段的聚集区域聚集范围最大,相对危险度和对数似然比最高;从此处开始向长江下游方向聚集范围逐渐缩小,相对危险度也逐渐降低。结论湖区5省沿江地区仍是血吸虫病空间聚集的主要区域,尤以湖北、湖南交界地带空间聚集性最高、范围最大。Objective To detect the schistosomiasis clusters in marshland and lake areas in 2008,so as to provide the reference for schistosomiasis control and the methodology for detection of cluster areas of related diseases.Methods SaTScan was used to detect the schistosomiasis clusters based on the spatial database from GIS and related variables,including the number of current patients and population in endemic areas.Results A total of 5 clusters including 39 counties（districts） were detected by SaTScan,the RRs and the Log-likelihood ratios of 3 clusters among them were over 3 and 1 000（P〈0.05）,respectively.The one with the highest RR and Log-likelihood ratio was located in the boundary of Hubei and Hunan provinces,and the cluster range there was the biggest.From there to the downstream of the Yangtze River,the area and RRs of the 5 clusters became smaller and smaller.Conclusion The 5 provinces in the marshland and lake areas are still the key spatial clusters of schistosomiasis,especially near the boundary of Hubei

关 键 词：血吸虫病 SaTScan 聚集区域 湖沼型地区 

分 类 号：R532.21[医药卫生—内科学]