CLUE-S模型在规划环境影响评价中的应用  

The Application of CLUE-S Model in Planning Environmental Impact Assessment

作　　者：刘仁志[1] 沙博 

机构地区：[1]北京师范大学环境学院环境模拟与污染控制国家重点联合实验室,北京100875 [2]北京市崇文门环保局,北京100062

出　　处：《应用基础与工程科学学报》2011年第1期64-73,共10页Journal of Basic Science and Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(40801229);国家863资助项目(2007AA06A404)

摘　　要：CLUE-S模型用于模拟土地利用空间变化,可为定量预测生态影响提供技术手段.在总结规划环境影响评价研究现状和CLUE-S模型应用实践的基础上,深入理解CLUE-S模型的模拟机制,针对规划环评特点,确定CLUE-S模型在模拟生态影响过程中的技术步骤和要求.以大兴区为例,通过Logistic回归分析该区域土地利用变化驱动力,利用Erdas、Arcgis等工具获取2001、2005、2007年三期土地利用图,对模型的模拟效果进行检验.在此基础上预测得到大兴区2010年、2015年和2020年的土地利用变化图,借助Fragstats软件计算景观格局指数,进一步分析大兴区规划年由于土地利用变化给景观格局带来的影响,将结果反馈到规划方案中,进而提出优化调整建议.The Conversion of Land Use and its Effect at Small regional extent（CLUE-S）model is used for simulating and locating land use/cover change,which could provide a useful tool for quantify the ecological impact in Planning Environmental Impact Assessment（PEIA）.Based on the progress of PEIA and the applications of CLUE-S model,the steps and requirements of CLUE-S model＇s simulating process in PEIA were proposed.In the case study of the Daxing District in Beijing,five driving factors were analyzed with Logistic regression in SPSS.Using tools of Erdas and Arcgis,land use/cover maps in 2001,2005 and 2007 were prepared to validate the CLUE-S model.And land use/cover change maps in 2010,2015 and 2020 of Daxing were produced by the verified CLUE-S model.Then landscape pattern indexes were calculated from these forecasted maps by the Fragstats tool,and ecological impacts on landscape pattern due to land use/cover change were quantified and assessed,in feedback to PEIA in Daxing.

关 键 词：CLUE-S模型 景观格局 生态影响 规划环境影响评价 

分 类 号：X321[环境科学与工程—环境工程]