基于集对故障树法的输变电工程风险评估模型  

Risk Assessment Model Based on Set Pair-fault Tree Method for Power Transmission Project

作　　者：安磊[1] 王绵斌[1] 谭忠富[2] 

机构地区：[1]华北电网有限公司电网建设分公司,北京100140 [2]华北电力大学电力经济研究所,北京102206

出　　处：《华东电力》2011年第1期12-18,共7页East China Electric Power

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(70571023);国家"新世纪优秀人才"计划项目(NCET-060208)~~

摘　　要：鉴于电网工程投资大、周期长、外部环境复杂,不确定性因素众多,输变电工程建设具有一定风险,研究输变电工程的风险管理,降低不必要的损失,是贯彻国家电网公司基建精益化管理的重要举措。介绍了就输变电工程风险发生的原因进行的逐层分解、采用故障树法构建其风险评价指标,然后运用集对分析理论,推导集对故障树计算法则,并建立了输变电工程风险评估模型。算例表明,所构建的模型具有一定可行性,可为输变电工程提供一定的决策支持。With the vigorous promotion of the large-scale power grid construction,the vast investment,long cycle and complex external environment have brought about plenty of uncertainties for the transmission projects,which also means a certain degree of risk.Therefore,it is significant to do research on the risk management of power transmission projects to reduce unnecessary losses,which is also an important measure to fulfill the lean construction management of State Grid Corporation.This paper decomposes the risk in Transmission and Distribution Project layer by layer.The fault tree is used to construct risk assessment index,and then the set pair analysis theory is applied to deduce the algorithms of set pair fault tree.Finally risk assessment model for power transmission project is established.Empirical study shows that this assessment model is strategically supportive to power transmission projects.

关 键 词：输变电工程 故障树法 集对分析 风险评估 

分 类 号：F407.61[经济管理—产业经济]