我国居民消费带动经济长期增长的实证研究——基于省际离散面板模型的分析  

An Empirical Research of China's Long-term Growth Driven by Consumption since Reform and Opening-up:Based on Inter-provincial Analysis of Discrete Panel

作　　者：沈妍[1] 

机构地区：[1]南开大学经济学院

出　　处：《财经科学》2011年第3期67-75,共9页Finance & Economics

基　　金：国家社科基金"我国经济增长向依靠消费投资出口协调拉动的转变"(08BJL014)资助

摘　　要：本文从经验研究的角度出发,通过构建我国省际间的离散面板数据,研究经济增长的短期波动、消费变动、开放程度、收入变化、人力资本变动、通胀因素等协同作用经济长期增长的强度与方向。研究发现,短期经济的频繁波动并不利于我国经济长期稳定增长;消费的稳定增加对经济长期增长有显著的正向拉动作用;人均收入水平、人力资本因素、适度的通货膨胀具有正向溢出效应;人口因素则会给长期增长带来减损作用。因此,建议提高弱势群体居民收入、加大教育投入、使用差异化的财政政策以保障经济长期增长的实现。From the perspective of empirical research,this paper focuses on the effect strength and directions between the synergy factors and long-term economic growth,including the short-term fluctuations,consumption changes,openness,income per capita,human capital and inflation factors,by constructing inter-provincial discrete panel data.It is proved that the frequent short-term economic fluctuation is not conducive to the long-term stable growth in China.The steady increasing consumption has stimulated on the growth positively.Per capita income,human capital factors and moderate inflation have the positive spillover effects.And the demographic factor would make the long-term growth in derogation.Therefore,it is important to ensure the realization of long-term growth by increasing the income of vulnerable groups,enhancing the investment in education and using the differentiated fiscal policies.

关 键 词：短期波动 长期增长 离散面板 

分 类 号：F224[经济管理—国民经济] F126