基于三角模糊数随机模拟的地下水环境系统综合风险评价模型  

Comprehensive Risk Assessment Method for Groundwater Environment System Based on Stochastic Simulation and Triangular Fuzzy Numbers

作　　者：金菊良[1] 刘丽[1] 汪明武[1] 李如忠[2] 周玉良[1] 

机构地区：[1]合肥工业大学土木与水利工程学院,安徽合肥230009 [2]合肥工业大学资源与环境工程学院,安徽合肥230009

出　　处：《地理科学》2011年第2期143-147,共5页Scientia Geographica Sinica

基　　金：水利部公益性行业科研专项(编号201001043);国家自然科学基金项目(51079037);安徽省优秀青年科技基金项目(08040106830)资助

摘　　要：采用随机模拟方法模拟三角模糊数,把三角模糊数及函数间运算简化为普通的实数之间运算,建立基于三角模糊数随机模拟的地下水环境系统综合风险评价模型(ARA-SSTFN)。结果说明:以置信区间形式表示的ARA-SSTFN评价结果,比现有常规方法结果提供评价结果可靠性方面更多信息,能反映受多种不确定性因素综合影响的地下水环境系统综合风险评价客观实际情况;ARA-SSTFN在流域水资源、水环境和水旱灾害等有随机性、模糊性和数据资料不精确等多种不确定性因素综合作用的各种资源环境系统综合风险评价问题中有推广应用价值。Influenced by the changes in natural conditions and human activities,groundwater vulnerability assessment,focusing on the vulnerability evaluation inherent to the hydrogeology,has reached a new phase of integrated risk assessment by taking into account the pollution caused by human activities,its negative effects on water environment,as well as the index risk rank and risk importance of groundwater environment.To resolve the problems of the impreciseness,complex implementation and the real number,resulted from the existing approaches to quantitatively describe the risk grade and importance of groundwater environment system,a aggregative risk assessment method for groundwater environment system was established,using Stochastic Simulation and Triangular Fuzzy Numbers（ARA-SSTFN）.Based on an overall consideration of the hydrogeology and human activity factors,the proposed model transforms the operations between triangular fuzzy numbers and its functions into the conventional operations of real numbers by using stochastic simulation methods to generate triangular numbers.The result shows that the ARA-SSTFN,expressed by the confidence intervals,provides more reliable information on the evaluation results than the current conventional approaches,and can reflect the actual conditions of the comprehensive risk assessment for groundwater environment system affected by various uncertain factors comprehensively.It is also indicated that the ARA-SSTFN has a clear concept,a simple implementation,and it is sufficiently general to be applicable to the comprehensive risk assessment in various resources and environment systems（e.g.,water resources,water environments,and water disasters） as a result of comprehensive effects of many uncertain factors,such as randomness,fuzziness and inexact data.

关 键 词：地下水环境 系统脆弱性 综合风险评价 三角模糊数 蒙特卡洛方法 

分 类 号：X820.4[环境科学与工程—环境工程]