基于LHS方法的可用安全疏散时间不确定性及参数敏感性分析  

Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of available safety egress time based on Latin Hypercube Sampling

作　　者：孔得朋[1,2] 陆守香[1] 冯磊[1] 卢兆明[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学技术大学火灾科学国家重点实验室,合肥230026 [2]香港城市大学建筑系,香港999077

出　　处：《安全与环境学报》2011年第1期176-179,共4页Journal of Safety and Environment

摘　　要：针对直接蒙特卡洛模拟效率较低的不足,利用基于拉丁超立方抽样(Latin Hypercube Sampling,LHS)的蒙特卡洛模拟分析了有喷淋作用时可用安全疏散时问(ASET)的不确定性;以秩相关系数和偏秩相关系数为指标,对影响ASET的参数进行了敏感性分析。分析表明,同样的精度条件下,拉丁超立方抽样所需要的抽样次数要远小于简单随机抽样的次数。算例分析结果表明,对于一个防火分区面积大小的无排烟单层商场,在有喷淋作用时,可用安全疏散时间具有对数正态分布的特征;敏感性分析表明影响可用安全疏散时间的主要参数为喷头距火源中心线距离、火灾增长系数和总热损失系数。The present paper aims to introduce the study on uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of available safe egress time （ASET） based on Latin Hypereube Sampling when sprinklers are active. Monte Carlo Simulation is the most simplest and effective method for uncertainty analysis. However, traditional Monte Carlo simulation is based on simple random sampling, which has some limitations. In order to get the accurate results, it requires a large number of samples, which means many runs of model should be made. It will be time-consuming. In order to overcome the limitation, uncertainty analysis of ASET was conducted using Monte Carlo simulation based on Latin Hypercube Sampling （LHS）. LHS has high sampling efficiency. Since too many uncertain parameters associate with ASET, it is of importance to know which one（s） has/have larger influence on ASET. Therefore, parameter sensitivity analysis for ASET was made after the uncertainty analysis. Due to the limitation of local sensitivity analysis methods, a global sensitivity analysis, rank correlated coefficient （RCC） and partial rank correlated coefficient （PRCC）, were em- ployed in this paper. Results of the case study showed that in order to get the same accuracy, the sampling times using LHS are much fewer than that using SRS. The results of the case study also showed that in a fire compartment of a large supermarket with sprinklers but without smoke exhausting facilities, the lognormal distribution can fit the distribution of ASET very well; The horizontal distance between the sprinkler and fire, fire growth rate and the total heat loss fraction have large influence on ASET while the fire source height, the maximum heat release rate and convective portion of the total heat have little influence on ASET.

关 键 词：安全工程 可用安全疏散时间 拉丁超立方抽样 不确定性和参数敏感性分析 

分 类 号：TU2[建筑科学—建筑设计及理论] X93[环境科学与工程—安全科学]