基于GIS的危险气体扩散实时预测系统研究  

Study on real-time prediction system of hazardous gases dispersion based on GIS

作　　者：李悦[1] 陈东升[1] 程水源[1] 黄青[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京工业大学环境科学与能源工程学院,北京100124

出　　处：《安全与环境学报》2011年第1期245-249,共5页Journal of Safety and Environment

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(50878006);国家环保公益性科研专项(200909008);北京市自然科学基金项目(8092004);北京市科技新星计划项目(2009B07)

摘　　要：将大气环流数值模拟及预报系统、危险物排放量估算方法和改进的气体三维扩散模式进行耦合集成,结合危险源实时监测系统,嵌入危险品理化性质及影响等级数据库,建立基于GIS的危险气体扩散实时预测系统,提出了一套危险事故有毒有害气体预测预警系统的构建思路。该系统首次将气象模式引入危险事故预测预警系统,实现结合实时气象信息的危险源事故后危害气体扩散范围及浓度分布的预测,并可实现分析查询等管理功能。The paper aims to introduce the process of developing a real-time prediction system of hazardous gases dispersion based on GIS. The system was established by making couple of atmospheric numerical modeling system and atmospheric dispersion model as core technology. The monitoring system provided information of risk sources for real-time prediction system. The atmospheric numerical modeling system supplied meteorological data and the data of source term was provided by source emission calculation model. The concentrations of hazardous gases were generated by the atmospheric dispersion sub-model by using the information of risk sources, meteorological data and source term data. The dispersion sub-model was improved in this study by adjusting the simulation principles. Then, in order to facilitate the system users, the database of physical and chemical properties of dangerous articles was embedded in the realtime prediction system. This database provided physical and chemical properties of various pollutants such as benzene, carbon monoxide, chlorine and hydrogen cyanide for real-time prediction system. Main properties of the database include molecular weight of hazardous gases, vapor heat capacity, boiling temperature, heat of vaporization, pressure constant, combustion heat etc. This system is capable to predict the concentration of hazardous gases in emergency and evaluate harm extent of the accident by employing the concentration data in determining the impact zones of minor injuries, serious injuries and lethal caused by each pollutant. Besides, the real-time prediction system was established based on the geographical information system. The main functions of this system including parameter storage, results storage, data exporting, data display and rendering, information query of affected areas, map overlays, web-IIS display etc. The main technical methods of integrating this system were FORTRAN language programming, Visual C ＆ C ＋ ＋ mixed language programming, SHELL script programming and FTP tran

关 键 词：安全科学技术其他学科 预测系统 危险源 扩散 系统集成 

分 类 号：X923[环境科学与工程—安全科学]