水库大坝突发事件应急预案可预见性评价  

Evaluating Foreseeability for Contingent Planning of Emergent Events of Reservoirs

作　　者：程翠云[1] 钱新[1] 盛金保[2] 王成林[1] 

机构地区：[1]污染控制与资源化研究国家重点实验室,南京大学环境学院,南京210093 [2]水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室,南京水利科学研究院,南京210029

出　　处：《中国农村水利水电》2011年第2期79-81,87,共4页China Rural Water and Hydropower

基　　金：“十一五”科技支撑计划(2009BAK56B04)

摘　　要：大坝安全管理的一项重要工作就是编制水库大坝突发事件应急预案,而应急预案是否具备对突发事件及其后果可预见性是应急预案编制是否成功的最基本要求。鉴于目前应急预案可预见性评价工作开展较少的状况,引入突变级数方法。首先,进行应急预案可预见性的多层目标分解,构建水库应急预案可预见性突变模型;然后,将水库大坝突发事件应急预案可预见性指标划分为5个等级,对照绝对意义下的常规等级标准,制定出适应突变特点的等级标准;进而采用上述方法分析某个水库的应急预案,最终确定了该应急预案的可预见性等级。Contingent planning of reservoirs is an important task in dam safety management.Foreseeability is fundamental to contingent planning.However,studies about foreseeability are limited at present.The catastrophe progression method is introduced in the foreseeability evaluation of contingency plans in this study.Firstly,some subsystems of foreseeability evaluation system are divided and catastrophe models are established.Secondly,the evaluation standard of index is divided into five ranks,which are translated into catastrophe rank standard.Finally,with the above method,an example is given by evaluating foreseeability of a reservoir＇s contingency plan.The aim of this study is to provide reference for foreseeability evaluation of reservoir contingency planning.

关 键 词：突发事件 应急预案 突变级数 可预见性 

分 类 号：TV697.1[水利工程—水利水电工程]