社会网络视角下中国农村成年男性初婚风险的影响因素分析  

Determinants of the Rural Men's Possibility of First Marriage in China:A Perspective of Social Network

作　　者：刘利鸽[1] 靳小怡[2] 

机构地区：[1]西安交通大学管理学院,陕西西安710049 [2]西安交通大学公共政策与管理学院,陕西西安710049

出　　处：《人口学刊》2011年第2期21-30,共10页Population Journal

基　　金：国家社科基金(09BRK009);教育部"长江学者和创新团队发展计划"(IRT0855);教育部新世纪人才支持计划(NCET-07-0668);教育部留学回国人员科研启动基金;霍英东教育基金会(121093);美国斯坦福大学"校长国际研究创新基金";西安交通大学"985工程"重点项目和西安交通大学"校内科研基金"的支持

摘　　要：在婚姻挤压背景下，男性拥有较多的社会网络资源是否意味着他们有更多结识异性和获得应急性经济支持的机会，从而增加了其初婚的概率？利用2008年西安交通大学人口与发展研究所在安徽x县调查的数据，从社会网络角度出发，采用事件史分析方法分析影响18～50岁农村男性初婚风险水平的因素。分析结果表明，当前农村男性的初婚年龄主要集中在22～27岁之间，27岁以上仍未结婚的男性，其成婚的概率急剧下降，成为婚姻市场的弱势群体；男性自身的特征和资源拥有状况，包括婚前社会网络、个人经济和非经济特征、家庭和社区因素，往往决定着个人的初婚风险水平，一般来说，男性自身特征和资源拥有状况越差，结婚的可能性越小。In the context of male surplus in the marriage market, if a man possesses more social network resources before marriage, does it mean an increase in his opportunities to get to know women and to receive loan support, thereby increasing his chance of making his first marriage？ We use survey data from X County of Anhui Province to explore the determinants of first marriage risk for 18 - to - 50 - year - old rural males in terms of social network. The results show that ： Age at first marriage for men in rural areas is concentrated in the interval between 22 and 27 years old. Unmarried men aged 28 and older, called ＂bare branches＂ , have become a vulnerable group in the marriage market because their probability of getting married declines sharply. A man＇s personal characteristics and possession of resources, including his pre -marital social network, economic and non -economic characteristics, family and community factors, are likely to affect the risk that he marries; in general, the chance that those men with poorer characteristics and resources enter a first marriage is much less than others. We offer policy suggestions to raise people＇s concern about the marriage and living conditions of old unmarried men in rural areas and improving their well - being.

关 键 词：初婚风险 社会网络 农村大龄未婚男性 

分 类 号：C913.13[经济管理]