基于灰色系统模型的潞安矿区尘肺病发病趋势预测  

Forecast of Lu'an mine dust pulmonary disease development trend based on the grey system model

作　　者：陈雄山 姚海飞[2] 李东华 陈彦亭[4] 樊少武[2] 马超[2] 

机构地区：[1]内蒙古伊泰集团有限公司阳湾沟煤矿,内蒙古自治区鄂尔多斯市017027 [2]煤炭科学研究总院矿山安全技术研究院,北京市朝阳区100013 [3]中海油山东化学工程有限责任公司,山东省济南市250013 [4]河北钢铁集团矿山设计研究院,河北省唐山市063700

出　　处：《中国煤炭》2011年第2期97-100,共4页China Coal

摘　　要：应用灰色系统GM(1,1)模型对潞安矿区尘肺病的发病情况进行了预测研究,分别以1981-1984年、1985-1993年和1994-2004年的尘肺病例数为建模资料建立了灰色模型,并经精度检验模型可用,研究结果表明:分年代、分阶段建立模型进行预测有利于提高预测的准确度;GM(1,1)模型预测有利于揭示防尘措施与尘肺病发病情况之间的关系。By using the grey system GM（1,1）,forecast research is made on disease development caused by dust pulmonary disease at a coal mine.Disease cases in the periods of 1981-1984、1985-1993 and 1994-2004 are used as basic datum to set up a model which has been inspected preciously.The research result shows that,forecast precision could be improved if the model is built through dividing the time by yearly period and grading;the use of grey system GM（1,1） model to forecast dust pulmonary disease cases is helpful to reveal the relation between dust prevention measures and disease situation.

关 键 词：尘肺病 灰色系统模型 矿井防尘 潞安矿区 

分 类 号：TD782[矿业工程—矿井通风与安全]