通货膨胀目标制宏观经济效应之“非对称性”的验证  

"Asymmetry"Verification on Macroeconomic Effects under Inflation Targeting

作　　者：刘东华[1] 

机构地区：[1]上海对外贸易学院金融学院,上海201620

出　　处：《金融研究》2011年第1期52-63,共12页Journal of Financial Research

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究项目基金(项目批准号:09YJA790137);上海市教育委员会重点学科金融学建设项目(编号:J51201)的资助

摘　　要：已有的相关研究似乎显示通货膨胀目标制的宏观经济效应在工业国与新兴市场国之间存在着"非对称性"(即通胀目标制在新兴市场国表现出具有改善一国宏观经济的积极政策效果,但在工业国却缺乏足够证据来证实这一点)。本文以采用通胀目标制的所有国家为考察对象,选择"通货膨胀率、GDP成长率及其各自的波动"四变量作为刻画一国宏观经济运行态势的代表性指标,运用DID方法并结合Bootstrap检验对此进行验证。研究结果表明此"非对称性"确实存在,此结论对同为新兴经济体、并且货币政策面临变革和转型需要的我国具有一定的政策启示。According to the existing relevant researches, the macroeconomic effect under inflation targeting seems to be ＂asymmetrical＂ between the industrialized countries and the emerging market countries. This paper studies all countries that have adopted inflation targeting by choosing four variables （ inflation rate, GDP growth rate, and their volatilities） as a highly recapitulative indicator to summarize a country＇s c performance, and meanwhile, using the DID method and Bootstrap methods to verify this asymmetry. The research concludes that the asymmetry indeed exists between industrialized countries and the emerging economies. China, as an emerging market country, is in urgent needs to transform its monetary policy. Therefore, this conclusion will be useful for the policy making in China.

关 键 词：通货膨胀目标制 政策的宏观经济效应 DID方法 BOOTSTRAP方法 

分 类 号：F820[经济管理—财政学]