从供给视角看我国房地产市场的“两难困境”  

The Dilemma of China's Real Estate Market:A Supply Side View

作　　者：陈超[1] 柳子君[2] 肖辉[3,4] 

机构地区：[1]工银瑞信基金管理有限公司,北京 100140 [2]伦敦政治经济学院 [3]武汉大学经济管理学院 [4]中国人民银行

出　　处：《金融研究》2011年第1期73-93,共21页Journal of Financial Research

摘　　要：本文通过理论模型解释我国房地产市场"两难困境"的内在机制,提出各参与主体的博弈行为与房地产泡沫的制度逻辑:一方面地方政府土地出让和开发商的垄断造成房价过高;另一方面地方政府投资又依赖于土地出让收入。中央政府面临两者之间的权衡。本文提出,地方政府的利益是地价和房价上涨的根本原因,开发商垄断是高地价和高房价的直接原因。我们认为,大力建设保障性住房,并发展高端房市场是解决房地产市场两难处境的有效手段。Based on the theoretical analysis and empirical evidence, the paper explains the dilemma of China＇s real estate market ： on the one hand land auctions conducted by local governments and the oligopoly of developers have pushed up house prices, and on the other hand, local governments heavily rely on the land auction revenues to sustain investment-oriented economic growth. The central government faces the trade-off between the welfare of house buyers and the investment demand of local governments. The authors argue that the oligopoly of developers is the direct cause of high prices of rising house prices, and local government incentives are the fundamental cause of that. Finally, the paper proposes that building more low-income and affordable housing while developing the high-end market would be an effective solution to the problem. Stringent regulation and rational planning would be essential in order to meet the housing demand of low-to-middle income families.

关 键 词：土地招拍挂制度 垄断 保障性住房 

分 类 号：F293.3[经济管理—国民经济]