重庆市伏旱时空变化特征  

Spatial-Temporal Characteristics of Midsummer Drought Variation in Chongqing

作　　者：李梗[1] 刘晓冉[1] 刘德 唐红玉[1] 叶钊[1] 

机构地区：[1]重庆市气候中心 [2]重庆市气象台,重庆401147

出　　处：《气象科技》2011年第1期27-32,共6页Meteorological Science and Technology

基　　金：国务院三峡办项目"三峡工程生态与环境监测系统"(SZ2009-004)资助

摘　　要：利用1961—2008年重庆34个台站的逐日降水资料,采用主成分分析、旋转主成分分析等方法对重庆伏旱变化的时空特征进行了分析。结果表明:重庆中西部是伏旱高频区,约10年7遇,且多重伏旱。重庆伏旱的第1载荷向量场表明重庆伏旱变化具有很好的整体一致性。重庆伏旱空间异常可分为4个区,即西部区、东北部区、东南部区和中部区。西部伏旱在1960—1970年代最强,东北部伏旱在90年代最强,其次是70年代,中部伏旱在70年代最强,其次是2000年以后,东南部伏旱的年代际变化趋势不明显,且伏旱整体较轻。On the basis of the daily precipitation data of 34 stations in Chongqing from 1961 to 2008,the methods of principal component analysis and rotated principal component analysis are used to analyze the spatial and temporal characteristics of midsummer droughts in Chongqing.The main results show that the midsummer droughts occur frequently in the central and western parts of Chongqing.The first loading vector field of midsummer droughts in Chongqing indicates that the midsummer drought variation has a good consistency.The midsummer drought abnormal region can be divided into four sub-regions： the western,northeastern,southeastern and middle regions.The midsummer droughts over the western region were the strongest in the 1960s and 1970s.The midsummer droughts over the northeastern region were the strongest in the 1990s.The midsummer droughts over the central region were the strongest in the 1970s.The variation tendency of midsummer droughts over the southeastern region was not obvious.

关 键 词：重庆 伏旱 时空特征 旋转主成分分析 

分 类 号：P426.616[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]