基于城市化视角的农民收入增长路径研究——针对河北省的实证分析  

Growth Path of Rural Residents from view of Urbanization——Application in Hebei Province

作　　者：冯兰刚[1,2] 田亚明[2] 焦彦臣[2] 

机构地区：[1]天津大学管理学院,天津300072 [2]石家庄经济学院,河北石家庄050031

出　　处：《西安电子科技大学学报（社会科学版）》2011年第1期84-88,共5页Journal of Xidian University：Social Science Edition

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(NSFC70772026);河北省教育厅科研计划基金(S090434)

摘　　要：提高农民收入是解决"三农"问题的关键,关于提高农民收入路径的观点有很多,其中通过农村剩余劳动力向城市转移来实现农民增收的观点得到了众多学者的认可。基于河北省城市化发展水平和农民收入增长的情况,运用变量自回归模型(VAR)对二者的关系开展定量研究,运用脉冲响应函数和预测方差分解来分析城镇化发展与农民收入增长之间的动态相关性。研究结果认为,河北省城镇化发展与农民收入增长之间存在着较强的正向交互响应作用,而且其长期的响应作用程度更显著,应采用长期政策以提高城市化水平来拉动农民收入的增长。Increasing the residents＇ income is the key to resolve the so-called three agriculture problems.There are lots of views about increasing presidents＇ income,and the theory that the transfer of rural surplus labors to city can make rural presidents wealthy is popular.From the situation of Hebei province,we made an advanced study on the growth path of rural income on the basis of VAR model,and the impulse response functions and variance decomposition are used to analyze the relationship between urbanization and income of rural resident.As a result,we come to a conclusion that in Hebei province the rural income growth is changing with the development of urbanization,and that the effect is stronger as the term is longer.Finally,the research tells us that we should take long-term polices to increase the rural income by improving the urbanization.

关 键 词：农民收入 VAR 方差分解 增长路径 

分 类 号：F323.8[经济管理—产业经济]