盐池县土地利用/覆被变化的人文因素分析  

Human factors analysis of land use/cover change in Yanchi County

作　　者：方广玲[1] 吴斌[1,2] 张宇清[1,2] 吴秀芹[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]北京林业大学水土保持学院,北京100083 [2]国家林业局宁夏盐池荒漠生态系统定位研究站,宁夏盐池751500

出　　处：《中国水土保持科学》2011年第1期74-81,共8页Science of Soil and Water Conservation

基　　金："十一五"国家科技支撑项目"沙区人居环境安全保障与工程防沙技术研究"(2006BAD26B03);教育部博士点基金项目"基于生态足迹的沙区人居环境安全评价与预测"(20090014110003)

摘　　要：以位于我国西部风沙区的盐池县为研究区域,利用土地利用现状变更调查和社会经济统计数据,建立土地利用/覆被变化的人文因素指标体系。用多元线性回归分析与灰色关联分析法,分析了盐池县土地利用/覆被变化的人口、贫富状况、社会经济、技术、政策、文化观念因素,以及土地利用/覆被变化的人文主导指标。结果表明:1)盐池县土地利用以耕地、林地、牧草地为主,1998—2007年耕地、牧草地比例明显降低,林地比例较快增长;2)各项人文因素综合作用,共同驱动盐池县土地利用/覆被变化,但重要性不同,人口、文化观念的影响作用较大,政策、社会经济中等,贫富状况和技术较低;3)影响耕地、牧草地变化的主导指标相似,主要有性别比、少数民族人口数、农村劳动者占全社会从业人口比例、第三产业产值比例、农业人口密度等,影响林地变化的主导指标与耕地、牧草地差异较大,主要有有效灌溉面积比例、服农比率、肉蛋奶总产量、人均地区生产总值、旱涝保收面积比例等。应该加大农业技术支持,缓解人畜用水和农业用水短缺现状,大力发展舍饲养殖的畜牧业经济;引导农村人口从事第三产业,提高收入,减轻人口对农业用地的压力,同时要预防弃耕地的沙化问题。Taking Yanchi County located in western China as the study area,based on landuse change survey and socio-economic statistical data,the human factors index system of land use/cover changes（LUCC） was established.Using multiple linear regression analysis and gray correlation analysis,Yanchi County＇s population,wealth status,socio-economic,technique,policy and cultural values of factors were analyzed,as well as the leading human indicators for the LUCC.The results showed that： 1） land use in Yanchi County was mainly farmland,forestland,grassland,in 1998—2007,farmland and grassland significantly reduced,but forest land proportion increased,the remaining types of land use/cover changed very little.2） the human factors drived the LUCC,but their importance is different,the influence of demographic,cultural attitudes is larger,policy,socio-economic is medium,rich or poor condition and the skilled is lower.3） The leading impact indicators of farmland and grassland is similar,that is mainly the sex ratio,ethnic minority population,in rural areas the proportion of workers of the entire working population of the community,the proportion of output value of tertiary industry,agriculture population density,and so on,The leading impact indicators of forestland is quite different,that is mainly the proportion of effective irrigated area,agricultural service ratio,output of meat,eggs and milk,per capita GDP,the proportion of dependable crop area.We should increase agricultural technical support to ease the shortage of human and animal water use and agricultural water use status quo,to develop feeding livestock breeding economy;guide the rural population engaged in tertiary industry,increase revenue,reduce the pressure of population on agricultural land,at the same time to control the desertification of abandoned farmland.

关 键 词：人文因素 主导指标 土地利用/覆被变化 盐池县 

分 类 号：S274.2[农业科学—农业水土工程]