金属矿山开采地表岩移的灰色预测模型  

Prediction on Surface Strata Movement in Mining of Metal Mine Based on Grey System Theory

作　　者：袁广祥[1] 赵海军[2] 

机构地区：[1]华北水利水电学院资源与环境学院,郑州450011 [2]中国科学院地质与地球物理研究所,北京100029

出　　处：《地下空间与工程学报》2011年第1期70-76,共7页Chinese Journal of Underground Space and Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41002107);华北水利水电学院高层次人才科研启动项目

摘　　要：金属矿山地表岩移受许多因素综合影响,从而导致开采过程中引起的岩移变化表现出复杂性和非线性特征。灰色系统的GM(1,1)模型是一种预测模型,包括数列预测、灾变预测、拓扑预测。矿区地表岩移的实测数据是时间序列数据,通过检验和残差修正,可得到符合该时间序列数据的GM(1,1)预测模型。以某金属矿区最大沉降GPS监测点为例,计算模型参数,建立相应的灰色微分方程模型,并对该模型的计算结果进行检验,对比实测值与模型计算值,发现该模型误差小、精度高,可用其对该地区未来地表岩移的发展变化进行预测。Surface strata movement of metal mines is affected by many factors. Therefore, the change of strata movement is complex and nonlinear in exploitation. Based on grey system, GM （ 1, 1 ） prediction model can predict sequence of numbers, catastrophe and topology. Measured surface strata movement on a metal mine is a time-series data. After test and correction of residual error, the GM （ 1, 1 ） prediction mode/ can be applied in the time-series data. The largest settlement displacement of GPS observation point is taken for an example in the paper. Gray model of differential equation is established according to the measured time-series data of surface strata movement on a metal mine. And the results of the model are checked. Through contrast between the measured data and the results, it is found that the prediction by the model is with little error and high precision. And it is feasible to use this model for prediction of the approaching change of surface strata movement on the metal mine.

关 键 词：灰色系统 金属矿山 地表岩移 预测 

分 类 号：TD32[矿业工程—矿井建设]