基于模糊推理的网络舆情预警方法  

Method of Online Public Opinion Pre-Warning Based-on Fuzzy Reasoning

作　　者：林琛[1] 李弼程[1] 王瑾[1] 

机构地区：[1]信息工程大学信息工程学院,河南郑州450002

出　　处：《信息工程大学学报》2011年第1期72-76,共5页Journal of Information Engineering University

基　　金：国家863计划资助项目(2007AA01Z439);国家社会科学基金资助项目(09&ZD014)

摘　　要：利用威胁估计方法研究网络舆情预警。从网络舆情社会学研究成果出发,分析网络舆情对社会影响的主要因素,选取了5种网络舆情分析指标;进而对各分析指标及舆情预警等级进行模糊化,建立模糊推理规则评估出预警等级。实验结果表明,该方法能够准确地估计出预警等级,符合专家经验判断。The problem about online public opinion pre-warning is described using battlefield state-and-trend analysis.Based on some researches about online public opinions in social science field,the paper analyzes main factors about the impact of online public opinions on society and selects five indicators,and some fuzzy processing is adapted to the factors and pre-warning level of public opinion.The paper also constructs the fuzzy reasoning rules,and evaluates prewarning level.The experimental result shows that the method can estimate pre-warning level much precisely,and to a degree,the estimation is fit for the opinion of experts＇ experience.

关 键 词：网络舆情 社会影响 威胁估计 预警 模糊推理 

分 类 号：TP391[自动化与计算机技术—计算机应用技术] G353.1[自动化与计算机技术—计算机科学与技术]