吉林省艾滋病疫情流行趋势预测  

Theoretical prediction of HIV epidemics in the coming five years with the data of year 2009 in Jilin province

作　　者：郭伟[1] 孟晓军[2] 孟向东[1] 邱柏红[1] 丁正伟[2] 郭巍[2] 丁国伟[2] 王璐[2] 

机构地区：[1]吉林省疾病预防控制中心艾滋病科,吉林长春130000 [2]中国疾病预防控制中心性病艾滋病预防控制中心流行病学室

出　　处：《中国预防医学杂志》2011年第2期161-164,共4页Chinese Preventive Medicine

摘　　要：目的估计2009年吉林省艾滋病高危人群中艾滋病病毒(HIV)感染者和艾滋病病人数,并预测未来五年吉林省艾滋病疫情流行趋势,为艾滋病防治工作提供依据。方法综合吉林省哨点监测、病例报告、专题调查以及文献报道等数据,利用亚洲疫情模型,对吉林省艾滋病疫情进行估计和预测。结果截至2009年底,吉林省成年人口(15岁及以上)中累积的HIV感染者和艾滋病病人数为3 908人,HIV感染率为0.026%,新发现HIV感染者928人;现存活的3 643名HIV感染者中,男男性接触者1 851人,占50.8%,性消费者1 391人,占38.2%,注射吸毒者309人,占8.5%,商业性性服务者92人,占2.5%。在未来五年,吉林省艾滋病疫情呈上升趋势,其中男男性接触者人群中艾滋病疫情上升趋势较明显,注射吸毒人群中艾滋病疫情上升趋势趋缓,商业性性性服务者和性消费者人群中艾滋病疫情上升趋势较缓慢。同时到2015年,积极的干预措施可以避免2 151人感染HIV。结论 2009年吉林省艾滋病疫情仍然处于低流行水平,性传播为主要传播途径,男男性接触者和性消费者是未来艾滋病防治工作的重点人群。Objective To estimate HIV epidemic trend in next five years with the HIV related data and estimation of year 2009 in Jilin province and to provide evidence for HIV prevention and control.Methods HIV related data were collected from sentinel surveillance database,case report and epidemiological survey results in Jilin province.The prediction of future HIV epidemics and infection trend was performed with an Asia HIV epidemic model.Results It was estimated that the numbers of cumulative,live and new HIV infected cases were 3 908,3 643 and 928 in adults（≥15 years old） by the end of 2009 since the first HIV infection case confirmed in 1993 in Jilin province.The prevalence rate of HIV was 0.026%.Among the current 3 643 HIV infection cases,1 851（50.8%）,1391（38.2%）,309（8.5%） and 92（2.5%） HIV infected persons were men who have sex with men（MSM）,clients of female sex workers（FSWs）,injection drug users（IDUs） and female sex workers,respectively.HIV epidemic trend of current cases will be rising in the next five years in Jilin province.The major increase of HIV infection cases will come from MSM.The rising trend among IDUs will gradually slow down.The HIV infection among FSWs and their clients will maintain at a low level.The implementation of active interventions can prevent 2 151 HIV infection cases.Conclusion The HIV epidemic was still at a lower level in Jilin province in 2009.MSM,FSWs and their clients are the population that needs to be focused for intervention in the future.

关 键 词：性传播疾病 艾滋病 疫情估计 亚洲疫情模型 吉林省 

分 类 号：R181.3[医药卫生—流行病学]