基于蒙特卡罗方法图书馆流通服务模型的建立与分析  

Establishment and Analysis of Model of Library Circulation System based on Monte Carlo Methods

作　　者：王家胜[1] 牟肖光[1] 

机构地区：[1]青岛农业大学图书馆,青岛266109

出　　处：《图书馆杂志》2011年第2期22-25,20,共5页Library Journal

摘　　要：根据读者到达时间间隔和借还书服务时间的分布规律,利用蒙特卡罗的方法建立了模拟图书馆流通服务系统运行过程的数学模型。根据历史统计数据,确定了一个工作日内各时段读者到达强度参数,通过实例仿真了不同通道和不同服务率下各时段流通系统运行过程,根据仿真数据计算并分析了读者的平均等待时间、排队概率、平均排队长度、最大排队长度及工作人员工作强度等统计指标,为保证流通系统健康运行,科学配置工作人员和服务设施提供了依据。According to the distribution rules of readers＇ arrival interval and service time,the mathematical model for simulating library circulation system was established by the Monte Carlo methods.Based on historical data,the intensive parameters of readers＇ arrivals in different period one day were determined,and the running process of circulation system in different period with different service channel and different service rate was simulated.The statistical indicators such as average waiting time,queue rate,average queue length,the maximum queue length and staff workload were calculated and analyzed based on the simulation data,so as to provide a basis for staff and service facilities collocation,and ensure the circulation system running healthily.

关 键 词：流通服务 数学模型 蒙特卡罗 仿真 

分 类 号：G252[文化科学—图书馆学]