动态风险评价指标下的配电侧最优购电分配  

The optimal power allocation model for a distribution company considering evaluation index of dynamic risk

作　　者：柏小丽[1] 雷霞[1] 马一凯[1] 孔祥清[1] 

机构地区：[1]西华大学电气信息学院,四川成都610039

出　　处：《电力系统保护与控制》2011年第5期6-10,16,共6页Power System Protection and Control

基　　金：西华大学2009人才培养项目(R0920906);西华大学研究生创新基金(ycjj200934);四川省科技厅科研项目(2009JY0139);四川省电力电子重点学科项目(SZD0503)

摘　　要：针对配电侧在场购电时,很难处理好风险、收益及供电可靠性三个目标函数之间关系的问题,提出衡量配电侧最优购电分配的评价指标。既考虑了对评价指标的主观及客观分析,也考虑了购电时的决策影响和实时变化的动态风险。运用层次分析法、熵权法和贝叶斯方法给出购电分配的指标权重。评价指标下的收益和供电可靠性用升半梯形法作标准化处理,风险则用降半梯形法标准化处理。所建立的模型能科学地处理配电侧购电风险、收益及供电可靠性三个目标函数之间相互影响且相互冲突的关系。This paper puts forward the indexes to estimate optimal electricity power allocation for a distribution company,because it is difficult to deal with the relationship among risk,incomeand power supply reliability when purchasing electricity power.The proposed model considers subjective and objective analysis for evaluation index,decision effect of power purchase,and real time dynamic risk.Indexproportion of power allocation is given by AHP,entropy-weighing method,and Bayesian method.Income and power supply reliability under the proposed index are delt with by Liter semi-trapezoidal,and risk by lower semi-trapezoidal.Thus the interaction and reciprocity relationship among risk,incomeand power supply reliability can be handled scientifically in distribution company.

关 键 词：配电侧 层次分析法 动态风险 贝叶斯方法 熵权法 

分 类 号：TM73[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]