旅游地复兴过程演化规律及其计算问题探讨  

Research of Evolutionary Discipline on Tourism Destination Rejuvenation Process and Calculation Issue

作　　者：杨春宇[1] 

机构地区：[1]贵州财经学院旅游管理学院,贵州贵阳550004

出　　处：《贵州财经学院学报》2011年第2期68-72,共5页Journal of Guizhou College of Finance and Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金资助项目(06CJY034);贵州省优秀科技教育人才省长专项资金项目黔省专合字(2006)34号;贵州省教育厅人文社科硕士点项目(08SSD013);贵州财经学院人口资源与环境经济学省级重点学科资助项目(09RZH01)

摘　　要：旅游地复兴过程如何演化、遵循什么样的演化规律至今仍缺乏系统深入的研究。Logistic曲线模型虽被用来模拟和探讨旅游地演化过程,但由于Logistic曲线模型自身存在的缺陷,无法真实反映旅游地的衰退或复兴过程。引入旅游地游客量变化的"速度"和"加速度"概念,在Logistic曲线模型展开为级数的基础上构建旅游地阶段演化模型,一方面可解决Logistic曲线模型自身缺陷和存在问题,另一方面可通过模型推导得出旅游地复兴演化过程仍旧遵循Butler生命周期演化规律,其演化曲线仍旧是"S"型曲线,但该演化过程仅包含发展、巩固及停滞几个阶段。具体以湖南南岳景区为实例对理论进行验证,结果表明理论与实际相吻合。The issue of how tourism destination evolves during rejuvenation and follows what kind of evolution discipline is still lack of systematic and deep study. Although Logistic Curve Model was used to simulate and study evolution process of tourism areas, but due to its own shortcomings, Logistic Curve Model can not reflect the true decline or rejuvenation. For this reason, the author introduces the ＂speed＂ and ＂acceleration＂ concept of the change of tourists ＇ number into the study, and expands Logistic Curve Model for the Taylor series to build Tourism Area Stage Evolution Model. On the one hand, the model, which involves tourist ＂ speed＂ and ＂ acceleration＂ concepts, solves the problems and shortcomings of Logistic Curve Model itself; on the other hand it can deduce that tourism area rejuvenation stage continue to follow Butler tourism area life cycle discipline, its evolution curve is still an ＂ S＂ curve, but it＇s evolution process only includes development, consolidation and stagnation. Finally, the author takes Nanyue scenic spot in Hunan as an example to verify the theory and the theory matches the practice.

关 键 词：旅游地 LOGISTIC曲线模型 演化规律 速度 加速度 

分 类 号：F590[经济管理—旅游管理]