基于等维新息灰色马尔可夫模型的大连城市用水量预测  

Urban Water Consumption Forecasting in Dalian Based on Equal Dimensional and New Information Grey Markov Forecasting Model

作　　者：赵晓梅[1] 盖美[1] 

机构地区：[1]辽宁师范大学海洋经济与可持续发展研究中心,辽宁大连116029

出　　处：《水文》2011年第1期66-69,87,共5页Journal of China Hydrology

基　　金：辽宁省社会科学规划基金项目(L07CJL028);辽宁教育厅创新团队项目(2008T101)

摘　　要：对城市用水量的科学预测是城市水资源合理开发、利用和管理的基础。在传统灰色预测模型的基础上建立了等维新息灰色预测模型，并利用马尔可夫链预测模型预测出结果的波动范围，形成等维新息灰色马尔可夫预测模型。再以1998－2007年大连城市用水量实测值作为原始数据，构建预测模型，预测其2008－2012年用水量。结果表明：等维新息灰色马尔可夫预测模型预测结果的误差更小，精度更高。该预测结果可以为大连未来城市供水规划提供参考依据。The scientific forecasting of urban water consumption is the basis of the rational exploitation, utilization and management of water resources. Equal dimensional and new information grey forecasting model was established based on the traditional grey forecasting model, and Markov chain forecasting model was taken to predict the fluctuation range of the forecasting results, to form the equal dimensional and new information grey Markov forecasting model. Then, the urban water consumption in Dalian from 1998 to 2007 was taken as original data to establish forecasting model predicting the urban water consumption from 2008 to 2012. The results show that the forecasting accuracy of the equal dimensional and new information grey Markov forecasting model has fewer errors and better forecasting precision.

关 键 词：大连城市用水量 等维新息灰色预测模型 马尔可夫链 

分 类 号：TV213.4[水利工程—水文学及水资源]