云南地区水氡前兆异常动态演化与地震关系研究  

DYNAMIC EVOLUTION OF PRECURSORY ANOMALY OF WATER RADON AND ITS RELATIONS WITH EARTHQUAKES IN YUNNAN REGION

作　　者：和宏伟 和国文 李永莉 陈燕 

机构地区：[1]云南省地震预报中心,昆明650041 [2]丽江行署地震局,丽江674100

出　　处：《地震研究》1999年第4期365-371,共7页Journal of Seismological Research

基　　金：云南省青年地震科学基金

摘　　要：本研究系统地处理了１９８７ 年至１９９７ 年云南地区２３ 个水氡观测点的水氡观测数据。为了突出短临异常， 寻找水氡短临预报指标， 数据处理方法采用日均值一阶差分法，使用差分平稳序列的３ 倍均方差作为异常判据。得到了云南地区水氡日差分异常台项月本底值为４ 台项， 水氡日差分异异常数月本底值为７ 次， 明确提出了预报３ 个月内云南地区５级以上地震的短临预报指标， 给出了其对应地震关系， 其中对应率和概括率均为７０ ％ 左右。同时全面地统计出了省内２３ 个水氡观测台站的单台异常映震能力。The study systematically processed the observed data of water radon at 23 stations in 1987-1997 in Yunnan. In order to show the impending anomaly, searching for the short impending index of prediction, a processing method of daily mean value of difference was used. The three times MSD in stable difference sequences are severed as anomaly index. The four station items with anomalies for monthly background value in Yunnan had been obtained. The monthly background values are 7 times for several months anomalies of daily difference of water radon. A short impending index to predict M5 earthquakes within 3 months is clearly presented. A relation corresponding to earthquakes has been given, among which corresponding ratio is about 70%, and generalization ratio is about 70%. And also the corresponding capacity for single station anomaly at 23 stations in Yunnan has been counted.

关 键 词：水氡异常 地震前兆 短临预报 云南地区 

分 类 号：P315.7[天文地球—地震学]