1995 年孟连地震(M=7.3) 的预报及社会响应能力(英文)  

PREDICTIONS AND SOCIAL RESPONSE CAPACITIES IN FACE OF THE 1995 MENGLIAN EARTHQUAKE(M=7- 3):AN OVERVIEW

作　　者：林蓉辉[1] 

机构地区：[1]云南省地震局,昆明650041

出　　处：《地震研究》1999年第4期419-427,共9页Journal of Seismological Research

摘　　要：云南是中国地震活动最为频繁的省份之一。在１９９５ 年７ 月至１９９６ 年２ 月的７ 个月期间， 接连发生了３ 次大地震， 它们是：１９９５ 年７ 月１２ 日孟连地震（Ｍ≡７－３） ；１９９５ 年１０ 月２４ 日武定地震（Ｍ≡６－５） ； 和１９９６ 年２ 月３ 日丽江地震（Ｍ≡７－０） 。本文在对上述３ 次地震作简单介绍的同时， 将重点强调孟连地震的短临预报及社会响应能力。孟连地震是一次前震—主震—余震型地震， 发震时刻为１９９５ 年７ 月１２ 日０５ 时４６分４１－２ 秒； 震中为北纬２２－０°、东经９９－３°。自１９９４ 年１１ 月起， 鉴于对监测到的地震活动性及前兆异常的分析研究结果， 作了中期（ ＞１ 年） 、短期（３ 个月） 及临震（ 主震前一天） 预报。对应上述预报， 发生了３ 次Ｍ５－０ 地震、一次Ｍ＞６－０ 地震和Ｍ７－３ 主震。地震部门提供的预报意见是各级政府部门作出防震减灾决策的主要依据。此外， 对３ 次强余震（Ｍ＝５－１，５－０ 和５－０） 的预报， 稳定了震区的生产与生活。早在１９８６ 年， 云南省地震局颁布了“云南省地震危险性趋势预测及防震抗震技术对策”。它阐明了一旦发生地震全社会应采取的对策步骤， 以及在短临预报发布后可能的发震区应?Yunnan Province is one of the seismically most active provinces in China. In a period of 7 months, there occurred three large events in Yunnan and its border:Jul.12,1995,at Menglian(the Sino Burmese border;M=7 3);Oct.24,1995,at Wuding(M=6 5);Feb 3,1996,at Lijiang(M=7 0). In this paper,the predictions and social response capacities in face of the 1995 Menglian event have been accounted. The Menglian earthquake, a foreshock mainshock aftershock sequence, occerred in 21°59′N; 99°04′E at 05∶46′41 2″ on July 12,1995. Since Nov. 1994, predictions of the intermediate term(>1 year), short term(3 months)and impending term(1 day before the mainshock)were made by analyzing in detail the observed seismic and precursory anomalies. Correspondingly, three events of M>6 0 and the mainshock took place. The predictions laid the base for decision making of the government at all levels in disaster prevention and mitigation. In addition, three large aftershocks(M=5 1, 5 0 and 5 0)were predicted, bringing about stabilization in the stricken areas. As early as 1986, the earthquake emergency response strategy entitled“Technical Countermeasures and Social Response”was published by the Seismological Bureau of Yunnan Province. In 1993, the“Strategy for the Impending Response to the Destructive Event”was issued by the Government of Yunnan Province. Together with the wide spread, deep going education of the public, the social response capacities were up graded prior to the 1995 Menglian event. In Menglian County, stricken with intensity Ⅷ and Ⅶ, only 11 people were killed and 136 injured.

关 键 词：地震预报 防震 减灾 社会响应能力 孟连地震 

分 类 号：P315.7[天文地球—地震学]