泰安市近58年气候变化特征分析  

ANALYSIS OF CLIMATE CHANGE FEATURES IN TAIAN CITY FROM 1951 TO 2008

作　　者：李瑞[1] 郭渠[2] 高慧君 周春珍[1] 

机构地区：[1]济南市气象局,济南250002 [2]重庆市气候中心,重庆401147 [3]山东省气象台,济南250002

出　　处：《山东农业大学学报（自然科学版）》2011年第1期95-101,共7页Journal of Shandong Agricultural University：Natural Science Edition

摘　　要：根据泰安市1951～2008年的气温与降水资料,利用线性拟合、Mann-Kendall、小波分析等方法,研究了泰安市近58年气温与降水的变化倾向、突变和周期等特性。结果表明:近58年来,泰安市年平均气温呈显著上升趋势并且在1993年发生了增温突变。泰安市年降水呈减少趋势,但变化趋势不显著,没有发生明显的突变。年平均气温存在准4、61、4、20、29年的周期性变化,其中准62、9年周期振荡最为强烈。年降水存在准3、5、7、10、16年的周期性变化,其中准5、7年周期振荡最为强烈。Based on the temperature and precipitation data in Taian City from 1951 to 2008, the climate change in Taian City was studied in detail by using the methods of linear regression, wavelet analysis and Mann - Kendall test. The results were as followed： in the recent 58 years, the annum mean temperature increased signifi- cantly and abrupt change took place from low to high in 1993; the annual precipitation showed decreasing tend- ency and there was no abrupt change;the annual mean temperature had periodic variations of quasi -4, 6, 14, 20 and 29 years and the oscillation of quasi - 6 and 29 years was the strongest; the annum precipitation had peri- odic variations of quasi -3, 5, 7, 10 and 16 years and the oscillation of quasi -5 and 7 years was the strongest.

关 键 词：泰安市 气候变化 线性拟合 Mann—Kendall 小波分析 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]