湖南省“十二五”物流业发展趋势评价与预测分析  

Trend and Forecast of Logistics Industry Development in Hunan under the Twelfth "Five-year Plan"

作　　者：欧阳小迅[1] 黄福华[1] 

机构地区：[1]湖南商学院工商管理学院,湖南长沙410205

出　　处：《湖南商学院学报》2011年第1期49-53,共5页Journal of Hunan Business College

基　　金：湖南省哲学社会科学基金项目(编号:2010YBB204);湖南省教育厅科研项目(编号:10C0852)

摘　　要：本文结合湖南省现阶段经济社会发展的实际情况,对湖南省"十二五"物流业发展趋势进行了判断和分析。并运用基于时间序列的指数平滑方法和弹性系数法相结合的非线性预测模型对"十二五"期间湖南省物流市场需求和物流总费用进行了预测。计算结果显示,未来五年湖南省物流市场需求总体规模年均增幅大约为9.3%,至2015年全省全社会物流总费用GDP占比将较目前下降约3%。This paper analyzes the development trend of logistics industry in Hunan under the Twelfth ＂Five-Year Plan＂ on the basis of current situation of economic and social development in Hunan Province.It also makes a prediction on the overall logistics market needs and expenditures in Hunan logistics market by using an exponential smoothing method based on nonlinear forecast model and elastic coefficient method.The results show the overall size of the logistics market demand for the next five years in Hunan Province will increase by about 9.3% annually,and to 2015 the province＇s GDP share of logistics cost will be lower than that of the current by around 3 percent.

关 键 词：“十二五”规划 物流产业 发展趋势 预测模型 

分 类 号：F259.276.4[经济管理—国民经济]