1999年至2007年期间中国人均柴油需求弹性  

Diesel demand per capita elasticities in China,1999—2007

作　　者：曹静[1] 谢阳[1] 

机构地区：[1]清华大学经济管理学院经济系,北京100084

出　　处：《清华大学学报（自然科学版）》2011年第2期241-244,共4页Journal of Tsinghua University(Science and Technology)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(70803026)

摘　　要：为考察燃油税改革带来的柴油价格变化、居民收入变化对中国人均柴油需求的可能影响,该文应用1999年至2007年中国分地区年度柴油价格及其他宏观数据,使用滞后内生变量模型对中国柴油需求弹性进行了计量经济学的估计。结果表明:中国人均柴油需求的短期价格弹性为-0.33、收入弹性为0.65;长期价格弹性为-0.86、收入弹性为1.70。该研究发现短期柴油需求弹性较长期低,柴油税对提高柴油使用效率的激励效率在短期较低,短期与长期的需求弹性估计与西方国家相似,但收入弹性高于西方国家估计值,另外长期效应大于短期效应,说明中国人均柴油需求具有其他国家类似的较强的粘滞性。The goal of this study is to analyze the diesel demand responses due to price and income changes related to China＇s fuel tax reform.This study uses a lagged endogenous model with provincial yearly aggregated panel data for 1999—2007.The results show that China＇s diesel demand per capita short-term price elasticity was-0.33,the short-term income elasticity was 0.65,the long-term price elasticity was-0.86 and the long-term income elasticity was 1.70.Thus,the short-term price elasticity is less than the long-term price elasticity,so reduction of the diesel fuel tax is ineffective in enhancing diesel use efficiency in the short term.These estimates of the demand price elasticities are similar to findings in western countries while the income elasticities are higher than in western countries.The long-term effects far exceed the short-term effects,so there is a high stickiness in China＇s diesel demand per capita in other countries.

关 键 词：柴油需求 价格弹性 收入弹性 长期和短期弹性 滞后内生变量模型 

分 类 号：F416.22[经济管理—产业经济]