不定寿命条件下城镇公共养老金最优替代率的理论与实证研究  

A Theoretical and Empirical Study on the Optimal Replacement Rate of Urban Public Pension under Uncertain Lifetime

作　　者：杨再贵[1] 

机构地区：[1]中央财经大学中国精算研究院和保险学院,北京100081

出　　处：《管理评论》2011年第2期28-32,44,共6页Management Review

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究规划项目(06JA630079);教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目(10JJD790038);中央财经大学211工程第三期项目

摘　　要：本文考虑不定寿命、用OLG模型在一般均衡框架内分析中国城镇公共养老金。通过市场经济的稳定状态满足社会福利最大的条件,求解最优的社会统筹养老金替代率。该最优替代率取决于人口增长率、退休期生存概率、资本的收入份额、个人折现率和社会折现率。模拟显示,最优的社会统筹养老金替代率随平均寿命延长而升高,随人口增长率下降而降低。在平均寿命延长且人口增长率下降的情况下,最优的社会统筹养老金替代率应降低。By considering uncertain lifetime,this paper employs an overlapping-generations model within general equilibrium framework to analyze China＇s urban public pension system.Using the condition for the steady-state of market economy to satisfy the social welfare maximization,we solve the optimal social pool benefit replacement rate.This optimal replacement rate depends on the population growth rate,retirement-period survival probability,capital share of income,individual discount rate and social discount rate.The simulations show that the optimal social pool benefit replacement rate increases with the life expectancy,whereas decreases with the population growth rate.Under the joint condition of risen life expectancy and fallen population growth rate,the optimal social pool benefit replacement rate should decrease.

关 键 词：不定寿命 养老金替代率 交叠世代模型 

分 类 号：F842[经济管理—保险]