我国通货膨胀与粮食价格的实证分析  

Inflation and Grain Prices in China Analysis

作　　者：张娉研[1] 柳欣[1] 

机构地区：[1]南开大学经济学院,天津300071

出　　处：《经济问题》2011年第3期16-20,共5页On Economic Problems

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目"完善国家宏观调控体系与保持经济平稳较快发展"(06&ZD028)

摘　　要：发展中国家在经济结构二元化向一元化转变的过程中,农业特别是粮食产业会由于社会资源的有限性向工业倾斜,进而产生较大的波动,一旦粮食供应量的增加不能完全弥补其需求量,就会出现粮食供不应求的局面,从而造成价格的上涨。粮食价格作为百价之王,它的变动也许会造成连环式的影响,从而推动整个宏观经济物价水平的上升,造成通货膨胀。为探讨粮食价格与通货膨胀之间的关系,借助计量分析软件,实证分析了粮食价格对通货膨胀的影响。通过研究认为,粮食价格对通货膨胀的影响是显著的,呈正相关,两者互为格兰杰因果。When the developing country transforms its dual economic structure to unitary structure,since the limited resources incline towards industry,grain industry often fluctuates.Once the increase of the food supply can not fully make up with the increase of demand,it may appear the situation that the demand exceeds supply which will result the increase of the grain price.As grain industry is the foundation of the development of most agricultural products,it will have an interlinked effect,further more it will promote the whole macroeconomic price level and the inflation will occur.For looking into this issue,the writer make the empirical analysis on the relationship between grain prices and inflation based on the previous analysis and with the help of Eviews,Through researching,the conclusions of this essay are as following： The grain price influences inflation significantly,they are positive correlation and Granger causality is between the two complement each other.

关 键 词：通货膨胀 粮食 价格 

分 类 号：F822.5[经济管理—财政学]