适线法在洪水超定量系列频率分析中的应用研究  

Application of Fitting-curve Method to Frequency Analysis of POT Flood Series

作　　者：周川[1] 陈元芳[1] 魏琳[2] 程龙[1] 黄琴[1] 曹雪芹[1] 

机构地区：[1]河海大学水文水资源学院,江苏南京210098 [2]水利部海河水利委员会水文局,天津300170

出　　处：《水电能源科学》2011年第3期48-50,共3页Water Resources and Power

摘　　要：为使超定量洪水的应用更方便有效,将适线法应用于洪水超定量系列频率分析中。以长江宜昌站日平均流量为例,利用独立性判别标准以确保超定量系列的独立性,选取合适的门限值形成洪水超定量系列。采用GP分布描述洪水超定量系列,利用适线法进行频率分析。结果表明,超定量洪水可扩大已有观测资料的信息使用量,且传统的适线法在基于GP分布的洪水超定量系列中应用效果良好。In order to make the method of peaks over threshold（POT） more effective and convenient,curve-fitting method is applied to analyze POT flood frequency.Taking the daily average discharge of Yichang gauged station in the Yangtze River for an example,the appropriate threshold is selected to form a series of POT flood and its independence is guaranteed by using independence criterion.And then the POT flood series is described with the GP distribution.Finally,the curve-fitting method is used to analyze flood frequency.The results show that the POT flood can expand the amount of information on observation data,and the traditional curve-fitting method has good application effect of POT flood series with the GP distribution.

关 键 词：适线法 洪水超定量 GP分布 洪水频率曲线 洪水重现期 取样标准 

分 类 号：TV122.5[水利工程—水文学及水资源] P333[天文地球—水文科学]