金沙江流域泥石流的组合赋权法危险度评价  

Evaluation of debris flow risk in Jinsha River based on combined weight process

作　　者：张晨[1] 王清[1] 陈剑平[1] 谷复光[1,2] 张文[1] 

机构地区：[1]吉林大学建设工程学院,长春130061 [2]吉林建筑工程学院测勘工程学院,长春130021

出　　处：《岩土力学》2011年第3期831-836,共6页Rock and Soil Mechanics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(No.40872170);吉林大学985工程项目(No.450070021107);高校博士学科点专项基金(No.20090061110054)

摘　　要：针对目前地质灾害危险性评价中对指标权重确定方法的缺陷,使用改进的层次分析法和熵值法确定金沙江流域泥石流的各影响因素权重。在此基础上,提出一种新的组合赋权规则,使两类权重间的差异程度和分配系数间的差异程度相一致,从而排除人为因素及数据奇异点的影响,得到相对客观准确的结果。以金沙江的典型泥石流作为计算实例,对现场数据进行了提取之后,使用上述方法计算出影响因子的权重,将权重代入经典的危险性分析模型进行评估。计算结果与当地泥石流的实际情况和发展趋势相符合,从而证明了该方法的合理性。In view of the deficiencies of current ways to calculate weights of indexes when evaluating debris flow risk,modified analytic hierarchy process（AHP） and entropy method are used to calculate the weights of factors of debris flow in the Jinsha River.On this basis,a new combination rule is proposed to determine the weight which can exclude the interference of human factors and unstable data.The fundamental idea is to make the difference between weights same as the difference between distribution coefficients which determine the importance of different types of weights in the evaluation.This way can help us to get a relatively objective and accurate result.Typical debris flows in the Jinsha River are taken for example.After the acquisition of field data,the above-mentioned method is used to calculate the weights of factors.Then they are taken to classical risk analysis model which is totally accepted by the academia.The result coincides with the local conditions which improves the rationality of this method.

关 键 词：组合赋权法 危险度评价 分配系数 

分 类 号：TV144[水利工程—水力学及河流动力学]