销售预测分析系统的研究与应用  

Research and application of sale forecasting-analyzing system

作　　者：赵改平[1] 刘丽兰[1] 程功勋[1] 树志松[1] 

机构地区：[1]上海大学机电工程与自动化学院上海市机械自动化及机器人重点实验室,上海200072

出　　处：《现代制造工程》2011年第3期28-31,共4页Modern Manufacturing Engineering

基　　金：上海市科委资助项目(08DZ1124502)

摘　　要：销售预测是企业预算管理的基础,对企业的发展和正常生产非常重要。首先建立了一套销售预测分析系统,对销售历史数据统一管理,利用销售预测分析模型给出预测结果报表。同时,对其中的预测分析模型进行深入研究,引入最大、最小预测值,改进了平均绝对百分比误差评价标准(MAPE),解决了误差过大不能确定销量预测值的问题,在此基础上建立了基于指数平滑法和改进后平均绝对百分比误差评价标准(AMAPE)的预测分析模型。最后,将该系统在上海某电器厂进行应用,预测对比分析结果验证了该系统的实用性和预测模型的准确性。Sales forecasting that is the basis of the enterprise budget management is vitally important to the development and well- balanced production of the enterprise. Firstly set up a sale forecasting-analyzing system to manage the historical sales data and give out a forecasting result list by using the sale forecasting-analyzing model. In the meantime, intensive study the sale forecasting-analyzing model through introducing a max and rain forecast value to modify the average absolute percentage error evaluation criterion,solve the problem that can not ascertain a reasonable forecast value when the error is beyond acceptable, and set up a forecasting-analyzing model on the base of the exponential smoothing method and the modified average absolute percentage error evaluation criterion. In the last, apply the system in some electrical industry of Shanghai, and the forecast comparative analysis result verify the utility of the system, the accuracy of the forecast model.

关 键 词：销售预测 评价标准 指数平滑法 销售预测系统 销售预测分析 

分 类 号：TH166[机械工程—机械制造及自动化] TP399[自动化与计算机技术—计算机应用技术]