利用Kappa统计值研究多种空气质量预报方法的一致性  

Study on the Consistency of Air Quality Forecasting Methods Using Kappa Statistic

作　　者：侯宜广 赵瑾 董玉昆 孙建印 

机构地区：[1]江苏省徐州市气象局,徐州221002

出　　处：《气象》2011年第2期232-236,共5页Meteorological Monthly

摘　　要：采用基于权重Kappa统计值的方法,在剔除了由于偶然性和随机性造成的一致性的基础上,对三种常用的空气质量预报方法的预测结果的一致性进行了衡量。结果表明,"数值模式预报"与"综合经验预报"的预测结果为"中等的一致性",说明其预测结果的一致性并不是由于偶然性造成的。衡量结果是清晰的,避免了来自主观评价的差异。从而,有利于提高对不同模型预测结果的差异性的认识,对进一步提高空气质量预报的准确度有着重要意义。Using Kappa value and taking out the impact of chance and random this paper measures the interagreement of predictive results of three different air quality forecasting methods.The result shows that, the predicting results of both numerical model forecasting and synthesis experience forecasting are of medium identities,and they are not casual.The results measured are clear,and the differences from subjective assessment can be avoided.Furthermore,this research would promote the understanding of different forecasting models and be important to the improvement of forecasting accuracy.

关 键 词：空气质量预报 权重Kappa统计值 一致性 

分 类 号：P457[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]