公共项目对经济增长的供给效应研究  

Study on Supply Effects of Public Projects on Economic Growth

作　　者：张文娟[1] 王捷[2] 

机构地区：[1]同济大学中德工程学院,上海200092 [2]斯坦福大学城市及环境工程系

出　　处：《中国人口·资源与环境》2011年第3期171-174,共4页China Population,Resources and Environment

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(编号:71040010)

摘　　要：近年来,政府在公共投资管理领域扮演的角色和发挥的功能正在发生变化,由过于追求项目的净收益到更加关注公共物品或服务所能产生的正的外部性的大小。所以,对公共项目特别是大型公共项目评价的方法、指标、标准开始转向加强从宏观视角的考察。公共项目投资对经济增长的促进作用表现为需求效应和供给效应两个方面。从我国目前的实际情况乃至未来若干年的情况来看,无论是道路交通等市政基础设施还是公共卫生、文教体育等社会基础设施都在不同程度上成为经济社会发展的"瓶颈",即处于长期的供不应求的状况,使其投资的供给效应对长期经济增长的提高推动作用是更为主要和显著。公共项目的供给效应是项目完成后,在长期的使用过程中逐次转移积累获得的经济效益,量化计算的理论基础是投入占用产出技术。该技术反映了国民经济这个开放的巨系统各部门产业之间的复杂联系,能够正确反映项目对长期经济增长带来的贡献,一般用感应度系数表示,数值越大表明对国民经济其他部门的推动能力越强。文章最后给出感应度系数计算模型和投资对GDP影响的计算模型。In recent years, changes have been taken place in the role played and the function exercised by the government in the area of public investment management, and more attention has been shifted from seeking for the net income of projects to the size of the positive externality produced by public goods or services. Therefore, the methods, indexes and criteria of evaluation on public projects, especially on large public projects, have begun to turn to the strengthening of investigations from the macro perspective. The role of investment in pubic projects in economic growth is expressed in two aspects ： demand effects and supply effects. In light of the present actual situation in China and the situation in the next few years, either civil infrastructure like road traffic or social infrastructure such as public hygiene, culture, education and sports will become, in different degrees, the ＇bottleneck＇ of economic and social development, that is, being in short supply for a long time to come, so the improving and boosting role of the supply effects of investment will become essential and prominent to the long-term economic growth. The supply effects of public projects are the economic effects gained through gradual transfer and accumulation in the long-time use process after the projects are completed, and the theoretical basis of quantitative computation is the input-occupying-output technology, which reflects the complicated relations between the industries and sectors in the open macro-system of national economy, and is able to really reflect the contribution made by projects to the long-term economic growth, generally expressed by sensitivity coefficients. Greater value indicates stronger promotion capacity to the other sectors of national economy. At the end, the paper put forward the calculation model of sensitivity coefficients and the calculation model of the effect of investment on GDP.

关 键 词：投入占用产出分析 经济增长 供给效应 

分 类 号：F062.6[经济管理—政治经济学]