基于区域经济层次的城市需水预测模型研究  

Urban water demand prediction model based on regional economic basis

作　　者：何英[1] 彭亮[1] 耿曙萍[2] 

机构地区：[1]新疆农业大学水利与土木工程学院,新疆乌鲁木齐830052 [2]新疆水文水资源局,新疆乌鲁木齐830000

出　　处：《水资源与水工程学报》2011年第1期83-86,共4页Journal of Water Resources and Water Engineering

基　　金：新疆高校科研计划(XJEDU2009S30);新疆水利水电工程重点学科基金资助(XJZDXK2002-10-05)

摘　　要：针对现有需水量预测方法存在局限性等问题,结合经济社会发展状况和水资源的特点,建立了基于研究区域经济层次的交互式城市需水预测模型。该模型能够较好地体现出社会经济、生态、环境和水资源各个系统之间的复杂关系。模型分为经济总量预测、经济结构预测、用水定额预测和需水量预测四个子模块。将模型在乌鲁木齐市水资源综合规划中应用,效果很好。模型具有实用性强、适应性强等特点,适宜推广。Aimed at the limitation of the present water demand forecast method,the interactive urban water demand prediction model was established based on the regional economic basis and combined with the development situation of economic society and the character of the water resources.The model could sufficiently indicate the complicated relationship between social economy,ecology,environment and water resources.The model was divided into 4 sub-models such as predictions of gross economic amount,economic structure,water demand quota and water demands.This model has achieved good results of integrated water resources planning in Urumqi City.The model has the characteristic of practicability,adaptability and is suitable to extension.

关 键 词：经济层次 交互式 需水预测 需水定额 

分 类 号：TV213.9[水利工程—水文学及水资源]