货币调整、资本市场与实体部门的长期互动——货币传导效率对货币当局的认知冲击  

Monetary Policy Adjustment,Capital Market and Their Interaction With Real Economy

作　　者：曾鸿志[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]江西财经大学,南昌330013 [2]北京大学,北京1000871

出　　处：《中国经济问题》2011年第2期21-28,共8页China Economic Studies

基　　金：江西财经大学2011年校级课题;2008教育部人文社科基金项目(08JC790049)资助

摘　　要：如果货币政策通过资本渠道传导不畅,现金资产大量滞留在资本市场中,结果在货币扩张/紧缩时,实体部门可能并不能发生相应的资本流入/流出,则货币当局可能产生"上次货币调整的效果不显著"的错觉,促使其发动新一轮更大强度的同向货币政策调整,这将加重国内整体经济和资本市场的动荡。通过对近十余年来货币供给量、资本市场规模和资产价格的实证分析,发现我国资本市场中的政策信息阻塞现象的确会引起货币当局的错觉,进而导致国内经济更加不稳定。If capital market cannot finance enterprises smoothly, the intermediary function of capital market would not be realized and cash asset would stay in capital market for a long time instead of flowing into or out of real economy. People may find that monetary policy is not efficient enough. This situation will introduce cognitive deviation to monetary authority,and stimulate it to implement policies in the same direction with greater intensity, which would cause more unstable in macro-economy structure and capital market. Using relative data from 1998 ,the author finds that there is cognitive deviation in Chinese monetary authority in long period indeed, which causes the heavy fluctuation in capital market directly.

关 键 词：货币政策 资本市场 认知偏差 

分 类 号：F822[经济管理—财政学]